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Tuesday Night Update

FL Senate 2012: Ben Nelson (D) is up for re-election in 2012. While he remains mostly popular in the state, towing the “conservative” democrat line, he still voted for Obamacare, which is much less popular in the state. Popular former Governor Jeb Bush would be the best bet for a Republican win, and a new Mason Dixon Poll suggests he would top Ben Nelson by 8 points, 49-41. Connie Mack IV, son of , well duh, Connie Mack III, is close but trails 45-40.

NV 2012 Senate Primary: If Rep Dean Heller (R) was only considering a primary challenge to Senator John Ensign (R), a new Tarrance Group poll might push him into officially announcing. Ensign has fallen out of favor with conservatives after having an affair. Typically, GOP Candidates don’t survive the Voter Test following a sex scandal (with David Vitter of Louisiana being one notable exception). Heller leads Ensign in a potential match-up by 53-35% and leads heavily with conservatives, tea party members, and activists.

Iowa Caucus: Ron Paul is headed to Iowa and likely to make another futile run for the GOP nomination. I guess I’ll never get the appeal of Paul and Kucinich (the left’s Paul) as actually people. Politics, sure, but their personalities and mannerisms are just bizarre. Paul’s back-to-back CPAC wins are the only things he will ever win, and he remains in low single digits in any scientific poll.

CO 2012 Pres Primary: Romney currently leads in Colorado with 19% while Palin and Huckabee are quick on his heels at 16% a piece. With these three in, the polls are going to be a complete clusterbomb. I still think Huck is waiting to see whether Palin is in or out before making up his mind (hence his announcement he will be deciding late). There is obviously bad blood between Camp Romney (whose staffers have consistently attacked Palin) as well as bad blood between Camp Romney and Huckabee (remember the 2008 West Virginia primary?). I don’t think Huckabee has the political will (or money) to try to take on Palin and Romney.

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