Home > General > Palin, Huckabee in better shape than analysts predict or admit; Romney in Worse Shape; Miss Me Yet?

Palin, Huckabee in better shape than analysts predict or admit; Romney in Worse Shape; Miss Me Yet?

Today, I am going to look only at the current 2012 support level of each candidate, as opposed to the “Obama/Enter Name” race.

Obama: The president gets a +3 approval rating in the Public Policy Polling survey (49-46), and his poll average against all opponents is 48%, pretty steady.

The Republicans:

Romney should post the best numbers in 2012 polling, but he currently only gets 41% Support from the public. Given the big Press Push for Romney, we’d expect this to be higher. Romney’s big problem is that he is a “reformed” pro-abortion moderate who offered up Obamacare-light when he was the Governor of Mass. Of course, circa 2007 he became uber-conservative just in time to run for President, but as yet to renounce his disastrous health care dealings. So, now he is stuck in the undesirable position of trying to convince conservatives and tea party activists that he is a conservative while trying not to go overboard so to as scare off his needed moderate votes. Good luck with that.

Huckabee posts a base-line support level of 44%, the best showing of Republicans. Huckabee is also the only Republican to have an overall positive favorability at +6. I still don’t think Huckabee will run, but it would be interesting if he did. Huckabee’s score is even more solid given that 1/3 of those polled do not even have an opinion of him.

Palin posts a 40% vote. Like I stated earlier, this is Palin’s floor. And it is actually a very good place for her to start, especially given the 80-20 rule. Given that the majority of those polled would necessarily be just partial news observers, a 40% score is good given that for two years the media has: scrutinized every tweet and facebook posting looking to stir up controversy; accused Palin of inspiring a lunatic hitman in Arizona; attacked her for shooting a moose for fun; attacked her for scandalously rigging Dancing with the Stars for her daughter; accused her of being a ditzy reality star; forced her from the Alaska governorship by harassing her and filing expensive, frivolous lawsuits – and then criticizing her for leaving office; accused her of inserting herself in stories after first wondering why she was remaining silent; ridiculed her for writing 3 words on her hand while their guy can’t speak to 5th graders without every word being spelled out; posts story after story of how Palin is “controversial” and “unelectable” and “crazy.” Need I go on? So, despite all that (and all that is the basis for most opinion of Palin), she fares just 1 point worse than Romney, and 3 points less than Huckabee?

Miss Me Yet? The biggest shocker? Obama leads his 2008 opponent, George W. Bush, by a slim 48-44! Wow, what a difference two years makes. Also, the much media-maligned “Tea Party” candidate has a base line score of 45%. I guess the media was right about that small fringe group too.

Categories: General
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  1. February 22, 2011 at 8:20 pm

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