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2012 Senate Projections

2012 Senate Projections. This Page will be Continuously Updated to reflect Polling Data and Shifts in information, addition of candidates.

Current 2010 Breakdown: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

2012 Pre-Election breakdown: 37 Republicans, 30 Democrats, 33 Races (Republicans +7 Start)

Current Projection – with Toss-ups: 50 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 6 Pure Toss-Ups

Current Projections – All Seats, No Tossups: 52 Republicans (+5), 48 Democrats (-5)

Breakdown 2012

Safe/Very Likely Democrat holds (7):

California (Feinstein) Connecticut (Open) Delaware (Carper) Maryland (Cardin) Rhode Island (Whitehouse) Washington (Cantwell), Vermont (Sanders)

Safe/Very Likely Republican Holds (7 ):

Indiana (Lugar), Maine (Snowe), Mississippi (Wicker), Tennessee (Corker), Texas (Open), Utah (Hatch), Wyoming (Barasso)

New Total: 44 Republicans, 37 Democrats, 19 Races To watch

The Races to Watch

This is a very rough sketch. Analysis will be added as candidates enter and leave the race, polling data becomes available, and information changes on the ground.

Arizona: Jeff Flake is the first announced candidate to replace the retiring John Kyl. (Leans R)

Florida: Bill Nelson could be vulnerable. His ratings remain popular, but his vote for healthcare remains an attacking point and it is unpopular in the state. Plus, the showing by Tea Party candidate Marco Rubio in 2010 put the establishment (both D and R) on notice. Charlie Crist would have probably been an easy win here if he had bowed out of the GOP Primary and backed Rubio, but instead looks DOA in Florida Politics. (Tossup D)

Hawaii: This only gets interesting if Linda Lingle enters the race. She can raise a lot of money and remains somewhat popular, and Akaka is close to 300 years old. But even then, Obama will probably have long coattails here. (Leans D)

Massachusetts: Congrats Scott Brown, you are the most popular politician in the state, especially good news for a Republican and he might not even pick up a big-name challenger. His centrism has brought anger from the Tea Party who got him there and he actually looks good to hold this seat for the GOP. One upside for Tea Party: When the time comes, he seems to be a reliable vote to repeal Obamacare. (Leans R)

Michigan: Debbie Stabenow isn’t too popular in Michigan these days.  Republicans made big gains here in 2010, just like in most states. Recent polling put Stabenow on the hot seat where she leads by slim 1-4% margins against 3 potential Republican Challengers. (Toss-up D)

Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar has decent leads in the Land of Voter Fraud and Unions. Good luck, Republicans! (Leans D)

Missouri: Claire McCaskill: Has already picked up the nickname ObamaClaire for her support of, well you can figure it out. One poll shows her in trouble in this right-leaning state. (TOSSUP R). State voted against Obamacare and overwhelmingly in favor of a recent referendum opposing the bill.

Montana: Jon Tester (D) is getting a challenge from Denny Rehberg, the state’s lone congressman. Rehberg’s has a big advantage in that Montana voter’s are used to voting for him statewide, usually by 2-1 margins. Tester barely ousted Conrad Burns in 2006 despite Conrad’s high unpopularity and ongoing scandal at the time. (Leans R) Polling: PPP – Rehberg 48% Tester 46%; Rehberg Internal – Rehberg 49% Tester 43%

Nevada: Ensign Might not even make it to the general according to a recent poll that had him losing big in a primary. That might work in the Republicans favor (Tossup R).

New York: Interesting only if Giuliani or Pataki were to get in. If that doesn’t happen, she coasts (Leans D)

Nebraska: Ben Nelson (D) looks to be a goner after having his “but I’m a conservative Democrat” card revoked, but at least he is brave enough to stand up in front of the voters, so far. Two polls showAG Jon  Bruning winning by 52%-38% and 50%-39%. (Leans R)

New Jersey: Menendez (D) is not all that popular, but Republicans keep putting up moderate candidate Tom kean Jr. as “the only candidate who can win” year after year. Voters might be better served running an interesting Tea Party candidate. (Leans D)

New Mexico: Jeff Bingaman Out: Too early to see who is in Current Rating (TOSSUP D)

North Dakota: 2010 was devastating for supposed “conservative democrats” in states like ND. Forever-termer Byron Dorgan (D) ran scared and retired in time for popular Rep Governor Hoeven to win some 76% of the vote to become the next Senator. Also, 18-year Dem congressman lost by 10% after voting for Obamcare. Now, Kent Conrad (D) won’t stand up to his voters and instead chose to retire. (Likely R Pickup)

Ohio: Sherrod Brown defeated the whimpy Mike DeWine in 2006. Until he gets a challenger it’s (Leans D)

Pennsylvania: A true Purple state, went for Tea Party Toomey in 2010 but Casey plays the “middle” very well. (Leans D)

Virginia: Once is enough for Jim Webb. Fearing a possible rematch against George Allen, Webb bails. Might have been better that way. Virginia went uber-conservative in the latest statewide races and decimated the democratic congressional delegation there. And Webb only managed a 1% victory against Allen, mostly because of weeks of MSM scandal-creating in his favor. (Leans R)

West Virginia: Call it the sucker state. This is the most conservative state that can’t help but to continuously vote for old hat, liberal Democrats. Despite Joe Manchin’s run to the right in the special election vote, he quickly showed his Dem credentials by casting a vote to not repeal Obamacare, despite campaigning that the bill was bad. This state (Leans D) because all the residents suffer from battered spouse syndrome.

Wisconsin: What a weird state. Obama wins handily, then Feingold gets creamed by an unknown right-winger. Well, Herb Kohl is up in 2012 and polls well against has-been Republicans. I think the current Union Mess will only help the Republican image in the state as voters are forced to pay attention and choose sides. The Wisconsin Republicans seem to carry a pair, and would be served well by another Walker or Johnson in the race. (Tossup D)

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