When Will They Announce Already? Predictions…

What a difference a Palin makes.

We know they are running (Romney, Gingrich, Pawlenty for sure and Barbour, Daniels, and other long shots probably), but are they all really too afraid to announce before Sarah Palin does? Certainly, if Palin had stated with certainty that she wasn’t running, most of these guys would be in already.

Let’s start with Palin: Tabloid site HollywoodLife claims that Palin has booked an April appearance on an Alaska radio station with the Bob and Mark show, where Palin has promised to announce whether or not she will run for the presidency. I’ve never heard of HL, but typically tabloid sites wouldn’t imagine a story like this which is particularly uninteresting to their target audience. (Let’s not pretend that women who are flipping through HL on Mondays are reading The Wall Street journal on Tuesdays). Plus, April makes sense. After spending the past 2 years as a popular conservative activist, hosting fundraisers for private schools and charities, she is spreading her wings into high-profile and public events, and will continue to do so over the next two months. Her first outing with the Long Island Association was an unequivocal success. The only thing the media could spin out of an hourlong, unscripted Q&A session was to falsely claim that Palin had “attacked” Michelle Obama’s breastfeeding push when she was actually talking about the rising costs of food. In march, she is heading oversees to give the keynote address at the India Today Conclave.

What about Romney? The McCain of the 2012 race (moderate/liberal when no one is looking, far-right/say anything to win the nomination) has still not gained much (or any) traction with conservatives. Chances are, his pro-choice, Romneycare past will forever haunt him. He seems to be afraid to launch before Palin, because he knows she will steal any and all attention when she announces. However, he may also be forced to announce before her. If Palin starts off with a bang, then Romney announces, and he is still overshadowed by Palin he double-loses. My money says Romney announces right around March 19th, when Palin is speaking in India. Of course, you better hope your announcement makes big waves.

As for Gingrich: I still don’t think it really matters. He knows he has no shot of winning. He is fairly unpopular with Republicans as it stands, and that’s without any recent criticisms/mentions of his past. Conservatives might have brief memories of Newt’s glory days, but Gingrich’s past is way to filthy. The Gingrich Trifecta (amnesty, energy, and cancer-stricken-wife-cheating-and-abandonment… twice) will do him in indefinitely. I say he announces after Romney and Palin, because it does him no good to announce before then.

Is Huckabee in: The King of Mixed Signals. Huckabee seems mostly interested in keeping the media interested in his “Will He/Won’t He” drama. While he doesn’t look like he is running, he is leaving the door open. He announces if, and only if, Palin announces and falters somehow. Or, if Palin announces and, two months later, Huckabee still is polling well. If Palin announces and her poll numbers rise, Huckabee is not running. He will announce his plans 2-3 Months after Palin, probably in June or July.

The Rest: Pawlenty is obviously running for V.P. Daniels is, for whatever reason, beloved by the establishment. But he is anti-social conservatism, duller than a rock, and he backed down in his fight against the Unions. D.O.A. Then there is Barbour, who talks too slow and puts me to sleep, and I’m from the south. Giuliani is über wishy-washy on running for elections, ran a horrible campaign in 2008, and should just opt in for the Senate, where he has a shot against ho-hum Gillibrand. In other words, this is a 4 man race, so it doesn’t really matter when the rest jump in, and I do not envision any of these second-tier candidates being the Huckabee of 2012. And even the Huckabee of 2008 had big money issues, so good luck to the rest of ya. And it may even just be a two-man race (Romney-Palin) by the time October rolls around…