Home > General > Elites Way Off on Palin Electability: Part 1 – The Floor

Elites Way Off on Palin Electability: Part 1 – The Floor

This article is the first in a series examining Sarah Palin’s electability, and why the Republican, Liberal, and Media Elites are using bias over analysis.

As we consider the electability of candidates, namely Sarah Palin, we first must consider the candidates floors. A “floor” is a candidate’s guaranteed minimum percentage based on current polling data, accounting for all factors. Obama’s floor, or guaranteed vote, according to analysis of current polling is 43%. What this means is that 43% of people will vote for Barack Obama no matter who his opponent is. It could be much higher, but probably not any lower. This number is arrived at by reviewing 6 months of polling date from all polling firms. This is Obama’s floor because, depending on his opponent, his support grows or shrinks, but rarely below 43%.

Sarah Palin’s current floor is determined to be 39% as she typically registers 39% or 40% in head-to-head match-ups against Obama (not counting 3-way race polling). So today, the floor stands at Obama 43% and Palin 39%, or Obama +4. Yes, I know what the skeptics/elites would say to this: “But Obama always scores much higher than 43% against Palin, duh!” That is true, but the point of determining a floor is to understand a candidate’s solid support. Elites prefer to go light on analysis and heavy on drama. If a poll shows Obama scoring 53% against one candidate and 42% against another, his support is quite volatile, and can be changed as information is acquired.

What does this all mean? For one, it is good news for Sarah Palin. Figure that almost all media coverage of Palin for the previous 2 years has been incredibly negative, accusatory, insulting, misleading, and “downright mean”, to quote Michelle Obama. It’s amazing to read something Palin writes or says and see how it is maliciously twisted into a salacious sound bite. Unfortunately most people at this stage know the sound bite, but not what she actually says. Meanwhile, despite being generally inept, but receiving glorious and glowing coverage from the media, Obama’s floor is at a mere 43%. This means that all the positive coverage on the world for Obama and all the negative coverage in the world for Palin results only in a 4 point spread.

When we toss in candidate favorable/unfavorable opinion we find a very interesting fact. Let’s not pretend that Palin’s current favorables are high. In reality, they shouldn’t be. We have to remember that 80% of the population’s opinion of Palin is currently formed by the media’s representation of her. Or, misrepresentation if you prefer, and I do. But Sarah Palin heavily outperforms her favorability rating, in many cases by 2-1 margins. Meanwhile Obama underperforms his favorable rating, usually by 10-15 percentage points. So far more people will vote for Sarah Palin even with a negative opinion of her while far fewer people with a positive opinion of Obama will vote for him. This only works in Palin’s favor as she is able to make the case for herself and opinions of her arise. If a large percentage of people will vote for her when they do not like her, what happens when the percentage of people who do like her increases dramatically, as will inevitably be the case.
So, how does Palin raise her floor? The good news is: things couldn’t get worse for Palin. The majority of current opinion about Palin is formed not on thoughtful consideration of her, but on minimally whimsical knowledge bandied about by frivolous “media” and entertainment personalities. Most voters, sadly, know more about Charlie Sheen and American Idol than they do about Sarah Palin or Barack Obama. Their opinion of her is that she is a ditzy beauty queen who is obviously controversial and not electable, and very, very right wing. After all, we just got our news from Saturday Night Live, Politico, or The Daily Show, so it must be true.

But what happens when 100 Million people tune into a debate between Barack Obama and Sarah Palin? What happens when she speaks freely and convincingly in that debate, as she did in a great interview with the Long Island Association? And then what happens when people realize that she isn’t the moron “they” have attempted to portray her as? That she can speak without uhhh’s and ummm’s like someone else cannot? And when Palin releases, yes I will say it, Reaganesque commercials that are inspiring and uplifting, you know about America being that shining city on a something or another? How quickly will opinion change when people realize that Sarah Palin is not what the media have portrayed her as?

And about those “controversial” opinions she holds? What happens when Americans realize that it is those “controversial” opinions that the majority of Americans agree with, often by wide margins. Well, that is a matter for Part 2 of Elite’s Way Off on Palin Electability.

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Categories: General
  1. SH
    March 18, 2011 at 8:42 pm

    Agree, agree

  2. Blackjack III
    March 19, 2011 at 1:06 am

    Thank you,thank you, thank you! I was beginning to think I was the only one who felt this way. After the hammering this woman has taken,and STILL takes,it’s a wonder she isn’t a blubbering fool! But when you see her,she’s still smiling,still beautiful,and still drives the left into a rage! Keep it up Mrs.President.

  3. Jimmy Doolittle
    March 19, 2011 at 3:32 pm

    Great analysis. When does Part II get published?

  4. thepalinexpress
    March 20, 2011 at 8:52 pm

    Thank you! I also think that as international media got “Palin, unscripted” and she had no problem whatsoever to repeat again her upbringing and her political career-that they will watch what is written here in the States. India will. Israel will.

    Two US allies will see how she’s being treated by the press-my theory is the big ones will have no other choice but to buck off-after all they have (i.e., CNN) branches all over the world. The message must be the same; if it isn’t the seams will show.

    Palinistas like me noticed very quickly how CNN reported her India visit, and the WaPo tried to get away with it, but they had to fix the quote that was misquoted on purpose. They had to APOLOGIZE.

  5. March 20, 2011 at 9:18 pm

    You are the expert and have done an excellent analysis. I have long believe, known in both my mind and heart that Gov Palin will run and that, once our People hear and get to know her, she will win the nomination and be elected our next President.

    With all bho is going to our economy, to our debt, to help the Muslim Brotherhood, and more – soon the People will begin to realize who he really is.

    Go Sarah!!
    Reb

    • KJ
      June 15, 2011 at 8:18 am

      The only people that don’t like her are the ones that are afraid of her and what she might do to them! Socialist/Communist that are trying to take over the world for their benefit.

  6. March 20, 2011 at 9:19 pm

    Sorry for the typos in above post

  7. Karen in Michigan
    March 20, 2011 at 11:36 pm

    Loved part I, Waiting for Part II.

  8. Jim
    March 21, 2011 at 6:46 am

    Awesome! Why do you think the left and Elite Republicans are so afraid of her? This is why! Great article!

  9. PhillyCon
    March 21, 2011 at 8:05 am

    Pollinsider:

    To your last comment about Reaganesque commercials … remember, all that buzz around her “Mama Grizzly” ad?

    Even the elites were beside themselves. I can’t remember which DC consultant was “gaga” over that ad, b/c in this person’s view, it went after the “precious Independents” (as Rush likes to say).

    Palin, better than any Republican I can think of, has mastered a fusion of populism with conservative principles while countering the Leftist narrative of white, rich country club Republicans.

    I suspect the Left understands the threat Palin poses to Obama electorally, and would explain the relentless attacks on her and her family. The Left may be a lot of things, but they are usually three steps ahead politically speaking. Our side, not so much (i.e. Rove and his crew).

  10. DD
    March 22, 2011 at 4:09 pm

    The key in the campaign would be when the ‘Reagan moment’ like the time when he grabbed the podium in anger and bellowed ‘I paid for this microphone’ happens. For Palin, it would come when either one of her RINO opponents or BHO would talk about how they were all for the ‘working men and women’ blah blah blah. She could then turn around, and explain how she needs no one to tell her about working people since she has actually done that all her life, while also raising her kids and running a city a major commission and a state. Game over.

  11. Larry Jacobs
    May 12, 2011 at 6:06 pm

    I’m giving Sarah Palin another nic-name, “TIMEX” , she takes a beating but keeps on ticking! It fits!

  12. patricia m gaban
    May 25, 2011 at 10:30 pm

    sarah palin is not excellent in her style and presentation but she has not made any fundamental mistakes of any substance both in her presentation and actual track records. the critics felt annoyed and embarrassed at her lack of an “educated polished style” of talking and presentation. Of course the leftists dislike her for her values. I will say this in brief sarah palin may not be polished and far from being perfect but she is the best person in politics today to stop or slow down the continuing american demise. Why? because she is genuinely strong in her values and determination to perform well even in the midst of adversity.

  1. March 24, 2011 at 5:00 am
  2. March 25, 2011 at 6:14 am
  3. April 1, 2011 at 7:27 am
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  5. April 14, 2011 at 12:26 pm
  6. April 28, 2011 at 2:51 pm
  7. April 28, 2011 at 3:32 pm

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