Home > General > PPP Floridah Uhhhh-naylsis and Rise of Tabloid Pollorists

PPP Floridah Uhhhh-naylsis and Rise of Tabloid Pollorists

There they go again.

Remember that 2010 Election in Florida, where Republican Rick Scott defeated Democrat Alex sink by 49-47.5%? Well, according to PPP uhhh-naylsis, he would lose (just months later) by a whopping 21%! As we did with the Michigan Numbers and Wisconsin Numbers, we too will do here for Florida to give a more accurate representation of reality. Now remember, I am going to use PPP numbers, and you can decide which analysis of the information is accurate.

First, the polling done included 48% of Sink voters (more than she received in 2010, especially considering this poll had 11% of “didn’t votes”) and just 41% of Scott voters. Right away, the poll bias, if left uncorrected, is well beyond the scientific MoE swing of almost 10 points. Plus, a big number of “non-voters” gave a a bounce to Sink in the overall numbers, which is useless in a “who would you vote for now” scenario, because they did not vote in the first place. And the “didn’t votes” always overwhelmingly favor Democratic politicians because the less involved/less knowledgeable/not-as-likely-to-vote people go with what is perceived as “hip” when answering questions. Pollsters like Rasmussen eliminate these for a more accurate reading. (Even in a strong year for Democtas in 2008, Obama only carried Florida by 50.9-48.4%.)

Measuring Rs and Ds:  In this Poll Scott increased his support of Democrats from 9 to 10%from 2010, while Sink loses 5% of Democrats that she had. The Republican vote is more interesting, because his support drops from 88% (according to CNN Exit Polls) in 2010, to 72% now (according to the PPP data). While this looks tragic, it actually proves that a large percentage of the Republicans in this sample vote for sink in the first place, because her numbers got worse among Democrats and there are not enough Independents in the sample to make up the supposed gap she gained. So, either PPP managed to find a very large percentage of the 9% of Republicans who originally voted for Sink, or a number of the respondents lied in the poll and said they are Republicans when they are not, or they are Republicans that didn’t vote. All of these factors is a statistical improbability though, that’s for sure.

Independents: In 2010, Scott won Independents by 52-44. This poll shows Sink winning Independents/Other (aka non-voters) by a very hefty 61-29. The first problem is the sample size (as is usually the case here). With only 500 total respondents, just 110 of these are Independents. 10% had no opinions on most questions, bringing your sample size of Indies down to 99 people. Of those, many are either not registered voters or are registered and do not vote. So, a 99-person survey where maybe 50 of them (being generous here) actually participated in elections is not really worth analyzing or taking with much faith.

So, do we think that, if the election were held today, that Alex sink would actually win by more than 20%? Well, what DO YOU think we think?

Needless to say, media outlets like The Palm Beach Post, Slate, and Florida Times-Union continue to give you analysis-free analysis, but run fun headlines about Scott’s “incredible unpopularity.” But, like in michigan, ohio, and Wisconsin, Reality is always less interesting than tabloid-pollorists “analysis”


Categories: General
  1. No comments yet.
  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: