Home > General > Elite’s Way Off on Palin Electability: Part 3B – The People

Elite’s Way Off on Palin Electability: Part 3B – The People

(Note: This is the final part of the series. the rest can be found here)

First, who can be The $750 Million Candidate? Any chance to beat Obama rests heavily on the ability to raise money. John McCain was out-raised and outspent an incredible 2-1 by Barack Obama in 2008. While Obama was running $1 million dollar, prime-time campaign ads on network television just days before the election, McCain was boxed into a corner, penniless, watching from the sidelines.

And the ability to raise funds is heavily dependent on the ability to get the conservative base on your side. McCain did not have that and saw his first real infusion of conservative cash only after he selected Palin as his VP nominee. If the Republican candidate is not conservative, conservatives will not give, and at least certainly not in the numbers they would to a conservative candidate. Just as liberals are the most politically active segment of the Democratic Party, so too are conservatives in the GOP. Moderates and “independents” are typically less involved, are last minute deciders, and often apathetic until voting time. Attempting to ride this as your political base is a mistake often made by “smart” establishment elites. They simply do not give money. And again, the Republican candidate will need a lot of it.

Sarah Palin is clearly the best fundraiser. For two years she has been the hottest ticket at multiple fundraisers across the country on any given subject. I think there is little question that her supporters would be quick to give. Mike Huckabee proved woefully poor at raising cash in 2008, and much of his support comes from a much more politically inactive conservative base. Mitt Romney raised over $100 million in his primary loss in 2008, which is good, but would have a major problem getting donor cash from the Tea Party base. Again, the GOP candidate needs to have the ability to raise $750 Million. And even then they will still be at a disadvantage. And unless someone like a Donald Trump is willing to self-finance, who else could compete?

Second, who can Pack a Stadium? The establishment Republicans say we need a boring thud (like Mitch Daniels/Tim Pawlenty!) to counter Obama’s base enthusiasm. Wait, they want a candidate that no one can get excited about? Being able to bring a crowd to see you is paramount. With Obama in 2008, it became an event to see him. Friends brought friends and their friends brought more friends. If you can’t get someone excited about seeing you, how can you get them excited about voting for you?

Sarah Palin has proven, time and again, that she is the biggest draw in the GOP field. In 2008, it became so embarrassing for McCain that he had to begin holding rallies at the same location as Palin because he was barely filling classrooms and she was having venues changed to accommodate bigger crowds. Enthusiasm goes a long way, and is there any other candidate that could pack the house in a way that Palin could?
Arguably, Palin is the Godmother of GOP crowds and, in my opinion, the Tea Party. Until Sarah Palin, the GOP did not gather. They did not show up in large numbers. They did not fill venues. They did not protest. Sarah Palin in 2008 almost single-handedly proved that conservatives could, like their Democrat counterparts, show up in large numbers in support of a candidate (or in opposition to one). For the first time, the silent majority was loud. (And 2009 and 2010 continued that trend first in opposition to Obamacare, then in support of tea Party candidates). Who else can do that?

Finally, who is Most Compelling? The GOP nominee has to be compelling in every way. In debate, are they straightforward and honest? In speeches, are they able to get a point across without putting me to sleep? In campaign commercials, are they able to provide an inspiring vision for America? These are questions that will all be answered in the coming months.

All three of these qualities/abilities are heavily dependent on the conservatism of the candidate. Remember, conservatives are the ones who either donate or do not. They are the ones who attend rallies. (When was the last great moderate rally?) The American people are overwhelmingly conservative, and the GOP base is reliant on the conservative vote. But you need more than conservatism to win. And only one candidate has it all.

Categories: General
  1. April 10, 2011 at 4:24 pm

    the gov.is the only one that can put humpty dumpty back together again. she is the only one that commands universal respect to do what she needs to do.the bearings on her compass are true.i beleive her faith stears her straight and steady.she has the big guy upstairs looking over her shoulder.she has the determination to see the big job through.my friends you are looking at the next president of the U.S.if i was jimmy the greek id bet the house on her.all people will have their way through her to take our country back.this is truely a american thing,not a left or right thing.people need to remember that.some one like gov.palin dosnt come along but one every 350 yrs or so,last time was joan of arc of france.

  2. April 10, 2011 at 4:25 pm

    thankyou JEN

  3. Carmelo Junior
    April 11, 2011 at 8:49 am

    While Sarah Palin gets herself and her family ready for the announcement of her life(to run for president of the United States), we, her supporters need to start attacking her likely opponents. Most of them hacks and pseudo conservatives and ambitious opportunists, e.g. Michelle Bachmann, Donald Trump, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Mike Huckabee.

    • Rob Cunningham
      April 11, 2011 at 11:07 am

      My friend, I love Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck and Michelle Bachmann. All are great patriots in their own individual rights. You error in the extreme by calling Michelle Bachmann either a “hack” or a “pseudo conservative.” Please do you homework. I would, and I’ll bet you $1 dollar that you would eagerly support a Palin/Bachmann 2012 ticket, yes?

      • Carmelo Junior
        April 11, 2011 at 12:05 pm


        Michelle Bachmann is nothing more than an opportunist hack. How in the world would she think she can be president with just 2 and a half term as congresswoman?? The lady has no experience, no seasoning. She just thinks she can gather support from conservatives and steal Sarah Palin’s support from Tea Party activists and be competitive in the 2012 primaries. What is this woman thinking? At least wait if Palin is not running then go ahead and get her followers to support you. But what this woman is doing is just political hacking and backstabbing opportunism.

        Bachmann has nothing to say on foreign policy, on energy, on economy, on troops, on Korea, on Iran, NOTHING! She is just hacking the conservative base and Tea Party activists for her own egocentric ambitions. She is jeapordizing Republican win in 2012 by deviding the conservative base. Bachmann has zero chances to beat Obama but she has big chances to be a spoiler in the 2012 primaries giving the nomination to a weak and unappealing candidate that would eventually get crushed by the Obama machine.

        Bachmann needs to stop and encourage the only person that can beat Obama(Sarah Palin) to run.

        Rob, being a strong conservative, anti taxes and anti Obama is not enough to take this corrupt machine down. Only Sarah Palin has what it takes. Bachmann is good…as a congresswoman getting more experience and maybe run for senator, but being a spoiler in the 2012 primaries? please!!

  4. Bill589
    April 11, 2011 at 4:55 pm

    Carmelo, I’m afraid you divide the TPM/conservative base, when that is not needed. I support Sarah Palin for president. I can still support all other conservative politicians. I still support Michelle Bachmann as a fine warrior on our side. I would be happy if she became Speaker, or a senator.

    We don’t need to diminish people on our side in order to support Palin. Help build up Sarah if you wish. We need a strong, unified party to beat the statists in 2012. We need to beat the statists, not weaken each other.

    • Carmelo Junior
      April 11, 2011 at 5:48 pm


      I’m afraid millions of conservatives might think like you. Then split their support behind Cain, Bachmann, Pawlenty, Romney, Mickey Mouse…so the GOP gets weaker following many “strong” candidates while Obama consolidates his support on the Left.
      You know why Reagan won? Because noone dared to be a competition for him on the Right. Reagan was not even running but conservatives rallied around him and he eventually decided to run and save the party and the nation.

  5. Rock
    April 12, 2011 at 8:59 pm

    We do not deserve Sarah Palin, after the way this country has sat idle while her whole life has been trashed ,and disgraced,by an onslaught of media lies, and liars. If this country had any guts ,Bill Maher ,and his kind would be tarred and feathered,and shunned. He certainly would not have a t.v. show on HBO, with no backlash ,where he calls Sarah a cunt! I believe in Sarah, but i’m not sure i believe in America anymore.. When they can trash her with impunity,and she has done nothing but dissent against this over reaching Govt. ,and let a useless bastard ,like Obama ,who is a “do nothing” that is self serving,and is actually an enemy of this state, i will never understand. God bless you Sarah. Thank you . If you believe in Sarah support her !!
    And dammit all ,support Glenn Beck. where is the support? Who else could bring 300,000 people together, on the mall in Washington?..Certainly not any conservatives on the scene today. Certainly not his detractors. Liberals have to pay thier audience to show up.I have never learned so much about the dirt of this nation than i have from him. Yet he has been cast aside. And business goes on as usual. Wake up, America,it is a time for choosing.


  6. uncleFred
    May 12, 2011 at 9:21 am

    Found these from a post on Newt’s announcement which is why this post is a month after its predecessor.

    While your analysis is interesting it misses two critical points. First what is Gov. Palin’s ceiling?

    Your assertion that she is at her floor is undoubtedly true. However your argument that she can raise her ceiling to 50+% is based on the notion that her negatives are not strongly held or are changeable based on new information. My anecdotal data shows that women who dislike Palin do so both strongly and are unwilling to accept new information from any source. This is a demographic that she would have to move substantially to win.

    Second is Governor Palin qualified to be President of the United States?
    Compared to the left, conservatives tend not to vote based on a cult of personality. We prefer to vote for someone we consider prepared for the job. \ I like Sarah Palin. I think that she is smart, articulate, tough, and an important conservative voice in our country. However she is NOT qualified for this office. We have seen what happens when we place the most powerful political, economic, and military position in the world in unqualified hands. We can not do this again. Speaking well and developing a following do NOT qualify someone for the presidency. Comparisons to Reagan are not accurate. Reagan had successfully governed one of our largest states. He was educated in classical economics. He was experienced. Palin needs more experience before we put her in the most difficult job in the world. Experience which, at the moment, she seems disinterested in acquiring.

    Of course were she to secure the Republican nomination I would vote for her over Obama in a heart beat. That is NO reason for us to work for her nomination.

  7. wodiej
    May 15, 2011 at 5:58 pm

    your electability series and other articles are awesome. thanks for sharing.

  1. April 11, 2011 at 8:04 am
  2. April 12, 2011 at 5:47 pm

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