Home > General > Iowa Poll Analysis: Tea Party Reps vs. Non- Tea Party Reps

Iowa Poll Analysis: Tea Party Reps vs. Non- Tea Party Reps

PPP has a new Iowa poll and it is all over the map if your interested in head-to-head matchups. Deciphering the primary results is impossible as the results change too dramatically depending on who is in and who is out (they test about 10 scenarios). Also, announced candidates tend to have a greater number bounce than unannounced ones. However, the Favorables tell an interesting story, and are more meaningful here. Plus, the Tea Party/Non-Tea Party breakdown is very interesting. First, keep in mind that of those survey, 28% of Iowa Republicans considered themselves Tea Party while 48% did not, and 24% did not know.

A) Tea Party Republicans are more politically knowledgeable/involved at this stage. This isn’t shocking news that the activist base would be identified as Tea Party, but it leads to a larger point about why Tea Party opinion at this stage is more important than Non-Tea Party opinion. Because Tea Party members are more involved, they know the candidates better than Non-Tea Party members, who are more likely to be casual observers of the political process at this stage. Before I dig into the info, I just want to explain how I concluded that the Tea Party base is more knowledgeable about candidates since there were no direct questions to say it is so. The “Don’t Know” answers are lowest among Tea Party voters. For instance, while just 4% of Tea Party Republicans couldn’t form an opinion of Mike Huckabee, almost 4 times that number (15%) of Non-Tea Party members could. Meaning, they didn’t have enough info about Huckabee to know who he is. It was true across the board: Bachmann 20% TP no opinion vs 44% of NTP no opinion. While Cain was pretty well unknown overall, 66% of TP Reps didn’t have an opinion to 79% of NTP Reps.

B) Huckabee (78%) Palin (72%) and Bachmann (72%) are clearly Tea Party favorites. Huckabee always has high numbers for someone who never does anything for the movement, but that’s besides the point. He just such a swell guy, I reckon! Romney’s most popular with the Non-Tea Party crowd at 60%, but falls flat with the Tea Partiers at 47%-40% which explains his absence from any Tea Party rallies last weekend. Pawlenty is at a decent 49% with TPR while 40% have no opinion of him. And the Non-Tea Party crowd has him at 37% favorable, but a whopping 52% don’t have an opinion.

C) Trumps in the Dumps: At 42-40 overall, this is no winning formula for the man with the hair. He’s even only +20 (52-32) with the Tea Party crowd, and way underwater with non tea Party crowd. But, does anyone really think he is running?

In Iowa, it’s really anyone’s game. But it will be impossible to gauge until we know who is in, and who isn’t.

Categories: General
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