Home > General > Palin Catches Up With other Reps in Virginia vs Obama, Nationally

Palin Catches Up With other Reps in Virginia vs Obama, Nationally

In Virginia, new PPP poll numbers show that Sarah Palin would fare equal to her GOP counterparts, depending on who would get the nomination. This is especially good news for Palin as, I have pointed out before, Palin is the only potential candidate to have been put through the ringer by the media and establishment political hacks. This works in her favor as she can more easily vanquish negative opinion of her. (After watching her give speeches in India, Madison, New York, and Colorado recently I don’t see how the current image of her can stick when she goes mainstream.)

So, in the poll Palin notches 40% against Obama, which is the same as Mitt Romney who also receives 40%. It’s better than Gingrich’s 37% and Trumps 32% and just behind Huckabee’s 43%. If you believe PPP, Obama gets between 51-55% against all the Republicans.

The weird PPP turnaround: For months, I hounded PPP for their outrageously high pro-Dem bias in their polling samples. It made my work easy as I could easily recalculate the numbers and find an actual, more truthful result, which always showed more balanced races than PPP “analysis” did. Democrats were regularly oversampled in poll after poll after poll. Then, all of a sudden, about 3 weeks ago PPP suddenly got their Party affiliation under control. For instance, this current Virginia Poll showed Dems +4. In 2008 Dem turnout was +6 and in 2009 Republican turnout was +4. I doubt Dem turnout will be +4, but it’s a far cry from the +14s PPP had been producing. But what went crazy, was the Independent numbers. When PPP had been oversampling Dems heavily, the independent numbers were fairly consistent to what you would expect: lowered support levels for Obama and higher unfavorability. But now that the Party Affiliations are more in line, suddenly Independents are far more pro-Obama than they ever are.

In 2008, a big Obama year obviously, Obama only won independents by 1%, 49-48%, over John McCain. One year later when the tea Party revolution took hold, Bob McDonnell won Independents by a whopping 66-33%. Yet, like I show in Arizona and North Carolina, all of a sudden Obama is exceeding his performance among Independents over 2008? I don’t buy it. In order to believe the data, I’d have to believe that Obama, who took just 1% more Independent vote in 2008, would now be the only person with a positive favorable rating among independents, and that he would beat Gingrich (23%), Romney (11%) Palin (14%), and Huckabee (11%) all by double digits. Plus, Obama would supposedly even beat the very popular McDonnell by 5% among Indies. Not. Buying. It.

Romney’s big problem remains Republican enthusiasm. Just 52% of Republicans have a favorable view of him, which is worse than Huckabee (65% Favorable), Palin (63%), and even Gingrich (55%). Palin is The most Favorable Candidate among “very conservative” voters with 67% approval, edging out Huckabee (59%) and a painful 44% for Romney. You don’t win the hearts of the base, you don’t win. Romney has some work to do.

National Polls: At this stage, there are too many candidates and possible scenarios to even pretend to analyze anything. The major candidates (Romney, Huckabee, Palin, Gingrich) all are up and down and all around depending on the various scenario tested. You can read that info here. One interesting tidbit though is overall Republican favorability.

While Huckabee leads the pack at +37%, Palin is close behind at +30%. Surprising considering the media obsession with claiming Palin is a falling star/unelectable, etc. More worrisome are Gingrich at just +14% and Romney at +23%. Meanwhile, the Trump act is certainly over, as he lands at -19% Favorable.

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Categories: General
  1. Obama Lin Baden
    May 18, 2011 at 4:24 pm

    I like Michele Backman will win the nominations.

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