Home > General > NC by PPP: Poll Sample worsens, Improvement for Palin 49%, Obama 51% w/ Recrunched #s

NC by PPP: Poll Sample worsens, Improvement for Palin 49%, Obama 51% w/ Recrunched #s

Four weeks ago, I tried to make sense out of a poll by PPP that showed Obama with a 52-40 advantage over Sarah Palin in North Carolina. That poll had a +9 Dem Oversample compared to 2010 figures and +4 compared to 2008. This month, the oversampling gets worse as it has a +11 oversampling vs 2010 actual voter turnout. This months poll has a respondent base that is 48% Democrat and just 36% Republican. In 2010, the turnout for Democrats was just 37%. Yikes, that’s a 30% oversample vs reality. No wonder Obama is doing so great. It was hard to rework the numbers last month, but when I did I came up with a closer range that would be between Obama +4 and Palin +2, essentially a dead heat.

This month, since the numbers are so close to last months and because the Independent Respondent count is way too low to accurately include, I am only re-crunching the numbers of my Level 3 Analysis. This month, the result has cut Obama’s lead in the state by half to Obama 51%, Palin 49%. Is Palin in-electable? That’s what the Pollsters and their Media establishment friends want you to believe. But their numbers tell a different story. So, out best estimate at this time:

Obama 51%

Palin 49%

How do we arrive at this number? We use Public Policy Polling’s own raw data, which is unweighted by them. Their result was Obama 52-40. However, they oversampled Democrats by 11 points verse the most recent election cycle. We re-run the raw data to match voter turnout and eliminate the skewed numbers towards one party or another. We then assign the “undecided” voter count into each candidates column to align with the general trends. This helps eliminate the artificial gap that is created during contested primaries that heavily effect challengers vs uncontested incumbents. Undecided Independents are assigned by 3:2 toward the challenger, which is relatively close to the general expectation of undecided vote among Independents.

Advertisements
Categories: General
  1. Nick
    May 25, 2011 at 6:15 pm

    And this without her even having officially declared!

  2. Raymond
    May 25, 2011 at 7:03 pm

    The left pollster led my the media CNN, ABC and NBC are desperately trying all the black propaganda that Sarah Palin is unelectable!! Sarah Palin will be the GOP nominee and Obama will be humiliated in 2012. That will become the fact.

  3. Sapwolf
    May 25, 2011 at 10:09 pm

    Sorry Dems. Sarah “Barracuda” smells that drop of blood in the water.

    Here she comes.

  4. Brandon
    May 28, 2011 at 9:22 am

    Why are you assuming that 2012 turnout will be like 2010? Midterm electorates are COMPLETELY different than presidential elections. Even as a Republican, I know that’s a HORRIBLE assumption that you’re making.

  1. May 25, 2011 at 10:15 pm

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: