Home > General > Pollsters Say Palin Can’t Win, Their Polls Say Otherwise

Pollsters Say Palin Can’t Win, Their Polls Say Otherwise

Head over to Democrat Pollster Public Policy Polling’s website and you’ll see the following headline displayed: ” So far we’ve done 2012 Presidential polls in 6 of the 9 states that George W. Bush won in 2004 but that Obama won in 2008. Obama leads 23 out of 24 hypothetical match ups that we’ve tested in those states.” And not only does Obama beat, well, everyone, he usually does so quite handily.

PPP is by far the most constant producer of state-level political polls at this stage. According to them, they are cheap (and they must use cheap data collection methods because, golly gee, they sure do find a lot more  Democrats than exist in reality. Below, are 6 of PPP’s latest battleground states election polls and the extreme bias towards Democrats that is shown. The first four states listed (NV, OH, PA, NC) are all states Obama won somewhat handily in 2008, despite being tossup states. In these states, the number of Democrats polled ranged between 45-51%, despite average Democrat turnout only ranging from 35%-40% in these states, Overall, this was a pure shift of 10 points. Is there any wonder why Obama is leading everywhere he is polled? News outlets and GOP establishment (Rove, Krauthammer) elites gladly proclaim: “Palin is unelectable! See look, at the polls! We need Daniels. We need Romney. We need Huntsman. Palin, unelectable. Palin, unelectable. If we keep repeating it enough….”

First, let’s see what PPP and the media wants us to see. Public Policy Polling had the following  biases in each of their state polls…

North Carolina Dem bias +11 – Poll sample was 48% Democrats vs. actual turnout of 37% in 2010

Ohio Dem bias +9 – Poll sample was 45% vs. actual turnout of 36%

Nevada Dem bias +10 – Poll sample was 45% vs actual turnout of 35%

Pennsylvania Dem bias +11 – poll sample 51% Democrats vs actual 40%

Missouri Dem bias +3 – poll sample 37% Democrats vs actual 34% (this was one of the few PPP polls with minimal bias, and it showed in the results as Obama only held a 48-43 lead pre-crunch.

Iowa – Dem bias +7 – poll sample 38% vs actual turnout 31%

In ALL of the above polls, the data that THEY want the public to see had Barack Obama “crushing, destroying, torpedoing!” Sarah Palin by between 10 and 13% points.

But what happens when we crunch the numbers using PPP data and use the most recent actual voter turnout models? You know, in a world where 1 in 2 voters that show up to vote aren’t Democrats. AKA, reality. (My deeper anaylsis linked where possible)

North Carolina – Obama 51, Palin 49

Ohio – Palin 51, Obama 49

Nevada – Palin 50.1%, Obama 49.9%

Pennsylvania – Obama 50.7%, Palin 49.3%

Missouri – Obama 50.6%, Palin 49.4%

Iowa – Obama 52%, Palin 48%

So, rather than double digit Obama wins in every state, using actual voter models we see that Palin ties Obama 2-2 in the main 4 swing states and all 6 are well within the margin of error, most  races being a 1-2% race.

So, Palin can’t win? She is statistically tied in 5 purplish states that Obama won handily in 2008 despite 2 years of Palin being constantly hammered by the media and establishment.

Side note: If we swapped the poll bias and increased the poll turnout of Republicans by equal 10-ish% votes, Palin wins every polled race handily. But we know the Pollsters wouldnt publish that without some deep clarification or without, perhaps, actually weighting a poll….

Categories: General
  1. ayamo
    May 26, 2011 at 8:13 am

    Thank you so much for your analysis. You’re really lifting my spirit here. It’s so awesome to have someone on the pro-Palin front who busts the pollsters’ lies.

  2. Ralph
    May 26, 2011 at 2:41 pm

    Liberals will tell you everytime who they fear most by who they smear most. But the Republican establishment fears Palin, too, because she ran in Alaska on cleaning up the corruption, and she did, knifing republicons as promised. The DC R’s know she will get them, too. And she is polling around 50%, and against Obama the Icon, to boot. RUN SARAH RUN!!!

  3. JR Dogman
    May 26, 2011 at 8:58 pm

    If Gov. Palin is the GOP nominee in 2012, she won’t just *beat* Obama.

    She’ll *smash* him to an electoral pulp.


  4. Bill589
    May 26, 2011 at 11:11 pm

    The fact that, after two years of battle and media attacks against her, she can still stand with the other presidential hopefuls is amazing.

    The fact that she stands taller, is unflippinbelievable.

    Barracudas Maximus vs. the billion dollar emperor.

    In 2012 the Billion dollar emperor is going down.

  5. Liburhl
  6. michael hansen at sc
    June 25, 2011 at 10:38 pm

    i love sarah palin she will win and she run she might announce tuesday!!

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