Home > General > Will Palin’s Rise Lead to Establishment Cries?

Will Palin’s Rise Lead to Establishment Cries?


Quick post this morning, but two new GOP Primary Polls show Palin with a huge (and expected) bounce following the departures of Huckabee and Trump and Mitt Romney possibly picking up the 1% of die-hard Mitch Daniels supporters…..

Gallup has the following:

Romney 17%

Palin 15%

Paul 10%

Gingrich 9%

Cain 8%

Pawlenty 6%

Bachmann 5%

Huntsman 2%

Santorum 2%

Pretty good numbers considering Palin is the only candidate who has not indicated a run. It is apparent she would destroy Romney in a one-on-one match-up as most of the other top vote-getters (Paul, Newt, Cain, Bachmann) share a more natural base with her and combine for 32% of the vote. Meanwhile, Romney’s two natural base-sharers (Pawlenty, Huntsman) only rack up 7%. The clear benefactor if Palin does not run is Mitt Romney, as he opens up a 7 point lead and Palin voters have no unified second choice. None of the candidates picks up more than a few points and Herman Cain stays at 8, so a Palin candidacy does not hurt Cain, but a Cain one hurts Palin.

My money is that Bachmann will not run if Palin does. Gingrich will fall further. If the field remains otherwise the same in primary season, most of the candidates drop out after the first few states and we could likely see a 2 way race by Super Tuesday….

A second survey shows similar results, with Romney scoring somewhat better than in the Gallup survey

Romney 25%

Palin 16%

Gingrich 11%

Cain 6%

Everyone Else >6%

Similar scenario. Romney gets the establishment/moderate vote, and a number of other candidates get the rest, with Palin leading the pack. This should get interesting!

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