Home > General > Palin Gets Strongest Emotions, Romney Likely Hopes Palin Skips GOP Race

Palin Gets Strongest Emotions, Romney Likely Hopes Palin Skips GOP Race

There’s a new Washington Post-ABC News poll out and shows some interesting results for the primary (and general).

Primary: First, my post from last week, Only Palin can Derail Mitt Romney, looks to be a little truer this week. In a primary match-up that includes Palin, the results are as follows:

Mitt Romney 21%, Sarah Palin 17%, Rudy Giuliani 8%, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul 6%, all else less than 5%.

Sarah Palin jumps a big 15 Points, up from 5%, while Mitt jumps 4 points, up from 17%, from the last poll taken. Also,  this poll was taken during Palin’s “Bus Tour” so perhaps that had something to do with her big jump. Is her strategy working?

But, when you remove Sarah Palin from the field, Romney makes a break for it. With Palin’s “second choice” votes allocated, Romney jumps 4 points to 25% and Giuliani comes in a distant 2nd, 16 points behind at 9%. Once again, Cain picks up nothing from Palin’s electorate, while Bachmann picks up just 1%, and most of the rest of the field picks up a point here and there or head to the undecided column. At this juncture, the reality remains that Romney has no clear opponent absent Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney benefits most by Palin not being in the race.

General Election:

Ever wonder what goes on inside people’s heads sometimes? In a poll question of the general public, when asked if they would ever consider voting for Sarah Palin, 64% say “They Would Definitely Not Vote” for Sarah Palin. I went to public schools so forgive my math, but that would then mean Palin could get no more than 36% of the vote. Well, the very next question: “Who would you vote for, Sarah Palin or Barack Obama” Sarah Palin gets…. 40%!

Not Paying Attention: Just 22% of voters are paying “close attention” to the White House race. This also falls into what I call the 80/20 rule of politics. This is also why I tend to discount most public opinion polling about Sarah Palin, as most people’s opinion of Palin is being formed at a time when they readily admit they are not paying attention to anything. And the same can be said for Mitt Romney. He has mostly been ignored and has not gotten “the media treatment” so why would people think he sucks?

Poll Sample: I cannot recalculate the poll numbers because they do not provide the party breakdown that PPP generously does. But, there is a noted Dem bias in the sample. Poll sample has 31% D, 25% R, and 39% I. With leaners it comes out 49% Lean Dem, 42% Lean Republican. In 2010 elections and according to Rasmussen Party surveys at worst the sample should be even, and usually about 35% D, 35% R, 30% I. I’d calculate that Obama’s numbers are far worse than what the following will suggest:

Romney 49%, Obama 46% – Like I said, I’d assume that Romney would be even higher if the polling sample was reworked to actually show the right % of D and R, but those numbers are not available. Romney is the only candidate that leads Obama in this poll. He also benefits from being the closest thing the GOP has to a Media Pet this cycle.

Obama 55%, Palin 40% – Like with Romney, this is probably much closer when you equalize the voting sample. Another thing to remember about polling is that the numbers are always less dramatic than they appear. A 15 point defecit does not mean you have to takeaway 15 points from your opponent to catch up. It means you have to take away 7 points. So, if you have 100 people, 55 say they will vote for Obama, 40 for Palin, she needs only take 7 Obama voters away to make it Obama 48%, Palin 47%. Given that only 35% of voters say they would probably vote for Obama, this leaves a pool of at least 20 voters to work with. Polls change quickly, and remember, 80% of thevoting  population is not even paying attention.

Bachmann, Pawlenty, and Huntsman are also right in the same range as Palin scoring 40 or 41% with Obama at 50%+.

Categories: General
  1. serfer62
    June 7, 2011 at 12:34 pm

    P.I. what are the D & R per centage of the population?

    • June 7, 2011 at 9:08 pm

      It Depends if you are talking about general population or voting population. In the voting population, the numbers are usually pretty equal. In 2004, the split was 37 R and 37 D. In 2010 the split was 35 R and 35 D. Rasmussen listed the voter breakdown as similar, with the R or D usually ahead of the other by 1 point or so. In the “general” population however, the Democrats outnumber Republicans by probably 5-8%. These are usually apolitical types who never vote and describe as Democrats because you can’t be a Republican, right? In other words, they are morons politically. But these useful idiots can come in handy when they actually do turn out, like in 2008 when the GOP was equally unimpressed with McCain. That year the turnout was a beyond normal 37 D and 32 R. But since then, the numbers have reversed back to pre-2006 levels and such magic will be hard to strike twice.

  1. June 13, 2011 at 12:32 pm

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