Home > General > Palin Leads Primary: Oh, and if Palin Can’t Win General, then Neither can Romney

Palin Leads Primary: Oh, and if Palin Can’t Win General, then Neither can Romney

Before I get to the polls, just want to point this out. All of the establishment types (Bill O’Reilly, Laura Ingraham, Karl Rove, Charles Sourkrauthammer) constantly yell “look at the polls!” when determining that Sarah Palin can’t win. If that’s the case, then one of the guys who “can win” can’t win either: Mitt Romney. Romney continues to fall as miserably behind Obama as the rest of the field does, with the lone exception of the poll earlier this week that showed Romney beating Obama 49-47. In most polls, Romney scores no greater support than Palin, Bachmann, or Pawlenty all four of whom gather between 35-39% , though the percentage Obama does get changes from candidate to candidate.

Head-to-head match-ups. At this point, national head-to-head polls can be ignored. Obama is likely to lead by large margins against all candidates in such polls for two reasons, both of which benefit Democrats this cycle. First, the incumbency advantage. As I’ve stated many times, incumbents almost always have an artificial advantage built into their polling. The members of their party know the incumbent is likely going to be the nominee once again, and have fewer undecideds in the polling sample. Meanwhile, challengers usually have far more undecideds and “opposition voters” than is likely as voters supporting a certain candidate are more likely to show unsure support or opposition to a candidate who is not their first choice. The end result is that Obama typically has 85-90% of Democrats in his camp while any given Republican questioned is in the 70s or low 80s in support with a lot of “unsures” thrown in. Second reason is the polling samples. Many polling agencies simply measure “all adults” instead of Registered Voters or, even better, Likely Voters. Once again, of those who do not vote, Democrats heavily outweigh Republicans, and thus are often the culprit in polling data having huge oversamples of Democrats (take just about any PPP poll, for instance. Add these two up, and you get a whole lot of results that do not mean a whole lot.

Primary Battle: Finally, for the first time in some time, Sarah Palin has taken a lead in a GOP nomination poll. This has been a quick rise for Palin, who was placing an average of 4th or 5th just two months ago. But the dropout of Huckabee and the flame-out of Trump, left the door open for a Tea Party candidate and Palin busted right through. In that time, Palin had been polling in the low teens, and occasionally in the high single digits. But one website update, word-of-mouth movie, and one Palin Family Vacation later and she sits atop the field. As far as I can tell, this is the first poll fully conducted after the Palin Roadtrip. But one trend that continues in all of the polls is that candidates are having a hard time breaking into double digits as Gingrich has lost half of his support in recent weeks and Cain’s momentum has slipped as higher profile candidates have emerged. This could turn out to be a classic battle between a staunch conservative, anti-establishment Tea Party candidate and an establishment, old school moderate Republican. Get your helmets on!

AP IPSOS Poll:

PALIN: 22%

ROMNEY: 20%

CAIN: 7%

PAUL: 7%

 

ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST

ROMNEY 21%

PALIN 17%

GIULIANI 8%

PAUL 6%

GINGRICH 6%

 

And a poll by Quinnipiac University had Romney in first place, followed by Palin and then everyone else in single digits. This would be the first poll in a while that had Romney ahead of Palin by more than 4%. But one trend that continues in all of the polls is that candidates are having a hard time breaking into double digits as Gingrich has lost half of his support in recent weeks and Cain’s momentum has slipped as higher profile candidates have emerged.

QUINNIPIAC POLL

ROMNEY 25%

PALIN 15%

CAIN 9%

GINGRICH 8%

PAUL 8%

 

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Categories: General
  1. June 9, 2011 at 4:06 pm

    Odd, I think I’ve heard this general message somewhere recently.

  1. June 8, 2011 at 7:29 pm

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