Home > General > Romney’s Favorables Nosedived in 2007/08: How “Electable” is he?

Romney’s Favorables Nosedived in 2007/08: How “Electable” is he?

The line being pushed by the Mainstream Media, who seem all to giddy to point out the closeness of Romney in the polls to Obama, and establishment Republicans alike is that Mitt Romney is moderate enough to win. Just look at the poll numbers! In May, Romney was +10 in favorable ratings in AP/GFK (45-35), and in other polls +4 Reuters (36-32), +8 in NBC (28-20). Nothing mindboggling, but decent nonetheless, and, therefor, he has a shot! And he always is close to Obama in the polls.

But the reality with Romney is this: He has not been in the news; he did not put himself on the line in 2010 election cycle and was pretty much ignored; he hasn’t been campaigning or laying out positions to large groups of people. Right now, Romney is riding on name recognition leftover from 2008. People have forgotten whatever it is they knew about him. So the questions is, as people got to know Romney before, what did they think of him? We look back to the last election cycle to find out.

In Gallup Polling, the last time that 40% of the population had never heard of Mitt Romney was in may of 2007, a few months after Romney launched his Presidential campaign. At that time, he was at a decent 27% Favorable to 19% Unfavorable, for +8 overall. In other words, similar to where he stands now, just more people know of him. From there, we see an interesting trend. Over the next few months, his favorable began to dip steadily, and rose above 27% just once in the next 7 surveys. By the time his “Never Heard Of” number was cut in half, to 23% in September, Romney’s favorables had not changed and stood at 27%, while his Unfavorables nearly doubled to 35%, or -8 overall. By the time the Iowa Caucuses were starting, he was now at -10, moving to just 32% Favorable to 42% Unfavorable. One month later, as he was set to leave the GOP nomination race, Romney hit a low point of -12 and 34% Favorable with 46% Unfavorable.

So, in the 2007/08 election cycle, from the time Romney was semi-known to the time he became well-known, Romney jumped from just 27% in favorable to 34% by the time it was all said and done, or a gain of 7 overall. But his unfavorable rating jumped from 19% to 42%, more than doubling what it had been. The reality is, the more that Romney campaigned and debated in 07/08 the more that people did not like him. His unfavorables rose at a rate more than 3 times what his favorables did.

But now? The last Gallup survey had Romney back at +8 (36-28), or exactly where he was 3 years ago.

The irony is, earlier this week Romney said he was glad that Sarah Palin was in the news and he wasn’t, because all the scrutiny was going towards her. Perhaps Romney was thinking about what happened in 2007/2008 also.


Categories: General
  1. serfer62
    June 8, 2011 at 4:12 pm

    When the DC GOP Elites declared it was Mitt’s time, I knew he was dead meat.
    What is it that DC does to pols to debrain them?
    There is a Tea Party.

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