Home > General > Palin Ties Obama in Key Swing States: OH, NC, NV, MO, PA

Palin Ties Obama in Key Swing States: OH, NC, NV, MO, PA

In 2008, Obama won 3 swing states that George w. Bush won twice (OH, NV, NC), almost took out another (MO), and expanded margin of victory in one more (PA). Today, we briefly look at these states and their current polling status.

+ All data comes from Public Policy Polling crosstabs. Their published results show large margins of victory for Obama because they do not weight their data to reality. In each of the 5 polls below, Democrats were polled at much higher rates than in any turnout when compared to 2010, 2008, 2006, or 2004. We use 2010 turnout models as history has shown that turnout occurs in 2-3 cycle spurts.

+ In these 5 swing states, Obama leads Palin by about 3% on pure data. However, this is good news for Palin because most of the Democrats have made up their minds in the data, and 4 times as many Republicans and Independents refused to give an answer (this is a result of Incumbency vs. Primary Candidates). Incumbent parties usually have higher % of Yes/No answers because their candidate is set whereas challengers have a lower % of Yes/No answers because the candidate in question might not be their first primary choice and they choose not to answer. This leaves a pool of 10-15% of people who did not answer who are mostly Republicans, followed by some Independents, and very few Democrats. Making assumptions and factoring in these numbers would have the races flipped in many cases.

+ Forget National polls. Swing State polls is where it is at. Like in most elections, a dozen states will decide who the President is, and the rest will vote for the party they always vote for.  These are 5 of those swing states, and Obama won 4 of them in 2008. In 3 of the polls, Palin takes in more Democrats than Republicans. In another 3, Palin wins more Independents than Obama (reversal vs. McCain from 2008).

+ “Personally” people like Barack Obama, but they think he is doing a crappy job. “Personally” people dislike Sarah Palin, or at least the portrayal of Sarah Palin, but rarely complain about her policy stances, probably because they are popular with the American voting public. Looking at all of this information, it is easy to see why so many are still gunning for Sarah Palin, even as the taunt her as irrelevant and unelectable. She is this close today, and she hasn’t even begun campaigning, her image has been destroyed, and no one knows who she really is. In reality, they know that Palin is: Genuinely likeable; The most anti-establishment anti-Washington candidate there is; Anti-Special Interests unlike everyone who says they are but are not; Holds positions in agreement with the majority of Americans; Electrifying and can raise serious money and ground game. Most polling is left “untouched” because Democrat pollsters know that random samples heavily oversample and favor Democrats when compared to the actual voting public. But this is reality:

(Please note: All figures show Poll Insider adjustments in order to correct PPP oversample of Democrats and is recalculated to most current voter data available.)

Nevada – Obama 46.5%   Palin 43%

In 2008, Obama won Nevada by 12.5%. Today, he would lead Sarah Palin by just 3.5%, a statistical tie.

Adjusted Sample: 35% D, 33% R, 32% I

Notes: PPP used a 45% D Sample which was 10 points higher than Dem turnout in 2010 and 8 points higher than in 2008.. Among Independents, Palin leads Obama by 2 percent, a big swap from Obama’s 14% margin over McCain in 2008 among Independents.

Ohio – Obama 46%   Palin 43.5%

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 4.5%. Today, his lead against Sarah Palin would be just 2.5%, a statistical tie.

Sample: 36% D, 36% R, 28% I

Notes: PPP used a 45% D Sample which is 9 points higher than Dem turnout in 2010 and 6 points higher than in 2008. Among Independents, Palin leads Obama by 1%, a group he won by 7% in 2008.

North Carolina – Obama  47.5%   Palin 43.5%

In 2008, Obama won NC by <1%. Today, Obama would be in a statistical tie with Palin.

Sample: R 40%, D 39%, I 21%

Notes: PPP used a 48% (!) Dem sample which is 9 points higher than 2010 (est) and 6 points higher than 2008. Poll showed Obama leading among Independents, but there were too few Independents examined for positive reading. In reality, McCain and Bush both won NC independents by double digits. With more accurate Indy data, Palin would lead.

Missouri Obama  45%   Palin 44%

Sample 37% R, 34% D, 28% I

Notes: 97% of Democrats are decided. But as is common, there is 14% undecided among Republicans and 12% with Independents. The Republican undecideds would likely break Palin 8-1 and the Independents towards Palin 3-2, or 2-2 at worst.

Pennsylvania – Obama  46%    Palin 42%

Sample: 37% R, 40% D, 23% I

Notes: PPP had an amazing 51% Dem sample! This is a solid 11 points higher than 2010, 7 points higher than 2008, and 10 points higher than 2004.

Overall Note: Though Obama leads by slim margins, it is important to note that 10-15% of those polled are still undecided, and this is largely made up of Republicans and Independents, both of which would play in to Palin’s favor and would likely put Palin ahead in all 5 scenarios).


Categories: General
  1. ayamo
    June 11, 2011 at 7:29 am

    It’s funny how different polls can be if you read them from a different angle. It’s as you say: Polls don’t lie, pollsters do.

    I nearly spilled my coffee when I read the 51% sample of Democrats in Pennsylvania.

  1. June 10, 2011 at 2:17 pm
  2. June 13, 2011 at 8:43 am
  3. June 13, 2011 at 9:31 pm
  4. June 13, 2011 at 10:41 pm
  5. July 4, 2011 at 11:39 am

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