Home > General > Palin, CNN, and John Ziegler (And Why he is Scientifically Wrong about Everything)

Palin, CNN, and John Ziegler (And Why he is Scientifically Wrong about Everything)

So, this morning I’m going to intermix a little fresh polling data with John Ziegler’s not surprising turn against Sarah Palin. (After all, if there is money to be made. Oh, and we wonder, as Ziegler curiously ponders, why Palin has trouble trusting people!)

John Ziegler’s main complaint seems to be that Sarah Palin didn’t “trust” him and instead trusted people he felt were no good for her. But why would she listen to him? His advice was all based on the premise that she shouldn’t run in 2012 because she couldn’t win. He wanted to be Palin’s handler, and it didn’t seem she was into being handled. “Don’t do this Sarah. Don’t go talk to those Tea Partiers Sarah. Don’t run Sarah. You can’t win Sarah.” Yeah, this is the advice of the guy I would listen to if I were planning on running for President. The guy who kept telling me I sucked.

But Ziegler is delusional on a few points. First, he seems obsessed with Palin’s electability, and falls into the same trap as most of the MSM and GOP establishment. From what I can tell, and with his supposed “shocking revelations” (surely to come alive in a book or documentary soon!), he wants to help destroy her. Proving, you could say, that her instincts to not trust him were correct.  As is the point of this website, we look at the electability of candidates on a daily basis. And as my research has shown, Sarah Palin is tied with Obama in 5 swing states, 4 of which Obama won in 2010: Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Missouri. And that’s without campaigning or announcing a run.

Those numbers are scientifically recalculated from PPP voter poll data and are based on 2010 turnout models, which my other research has also shown is a good indicator of turnout for 2012. Elections are based more on turnout than the mythical “win the middle” mantra. In 2008, Obama won because Democrats turned out in excruciatingly large numbers that were never seen before and conservatives stayed home. In 2010, the tide turned with the Tea Party movement and Republicans had huge turnout while Democrats returned to normal pre-2006 voting patterns. And in reality, the 2010 Republican turnout wasn’t even that much out of the norm compared to 2000, 2002, and 2004. The big sweeps were more a result of Republicans no longer giving supposed moderate Democrats a free pass and instead gave them the boot.

If Republicans are to win, they need the enthusiasm (mostly Tea Party driven) of 2010 and for Democrats to return to their normal voting patterns, which will happen in all likelihood. Today’s CNN poll backs much of this up. Nearly 1/2 Tea Party voters (46%) are “extremely enthusiastic” to vote in next year’s Presidential election. How big is this? Figure that is even higher than the 45% of Democrats who said they were “extremely enthusiastic” to vote just days before the 2008 election. The Tea Party crowd surpasses that over a year in advance. That is huge. this compares to just 28% of Anti-Tea Party voters who are extremely enthusiastic and just 16% of Neutral Tea Party voters. While just 11% of Tea Party voters are not excited about voting, that number is double by people who do not like the Tea Party (22%), and tripled by Tea Party neutral types (33%). The “neutral” 33% not-excited-to-vote is key because this indicates a set of people who are less likely to vote, but were likely to have voted in 2008 and for Barack Obama. But, alas, the shine has worn off.

Ziegler also claims that Palin is taking the attention away from really awesome candidates, like Tim Pawlenty! First, it’s not Sarah Palin’s job to make sure people notice Tim Pawlenty. It seems he has been running for quite some time and not that many people are interested. And if a simple bus tour by a non-candidate is something that would take all of the attention away from such an awesome candidate, then how awesome is he? Plus, Pawlenty took part in the first GOP debate and while most thought he did fine, no one was overly impressed by anything and, in fact, Herman Cain got a big boost from the same debate. Is this also Sarah Palin’s fault? Or is it Cain’s fault for taking the spotlight away from someone who can’t win. Maybe we should just let John Ziegler decide who gets press attention and when and where they get it. Then it could be all Tim Pawlenty all the time and we will all fall in love with him! Furthermore more of my research shows Pawlenty and his 4% support have historically almost no shot of winning the GOP nomination. If you aren’t polling above 15% at this stage, you do not win the nomination. It’s that simple. And only 2 candidates do that consistently.

So, again, we turn to CNN’s poll to see that Mitt Romney leads the field with 24%, with his only competition being Sarah Palin at 20%, and Giuliani well back at 12%. Tim Pawlenty, the candidate Sarah Palin is supposedly hurting, is sitting pretty at 3%. Maybe Palin should wear a “I’m with T-Paw” shirt. That’s apparently been Ziegler’s angle all along. Heck, even when you add Pawlenty’s first and second choice scenarios, he only hits 12%, while Romney, Palin, and Giuliani hit close to 40%.

Without Giuliani polled, it’s Romney 28% and Palin 23%, with all other candidates at 11% or under (and Pawlenty still at 3%!). And without Palin or Giuliani in the race, it’s Romney at 35%, more than doubling his nearest opponent Newt Gingrich’s 16%. And Newt is imploding (Oh yeah, and Pawlenty jumps to 4%). Which leads to my other analysis that only Palin can derail Romney. In fact, Romney’s 35% shows that it is a statistical improbability that he would not win if Palin and Giuliani do not run. I have seen no candidate with a clear 20 point primary margin in June prior to a primary who did not win his party’s nomination. And i checked back 32 years. So, putting delusions of some mystical candidate coming from nowhere to win, is it his wish that Romney get the nomination? Because that is what’s going to happen.

So, I’m not sure what Ziegler’s beef is (Money, Publicity, Palin ignored him) but he doesn’t have reality in check and has no clue of what will happen and why it will happen. He doesn’t think Palin can win, fine. My research clearly shows otherwise and my research is hard to dispute. And I welcome people to challenge it. He thinks Pawlenty can win the primary if only Palin would shut up and go home. Again, fine, but no candidate has ever come from 3% in June to take out a candidate (who he is basically interchangeable with) that was 30% ahead of him. This race will come down to Romney and Palin, with an outside shot of Rudy Giuliani (and I say outside because, unlike Palin, he will need the organization to win and I do not see one).

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Categories: General
  1. June 13, 2011 at 12:27 pm

    Great analysis. I supported him when he came out with the video and in his loud mouth style, he went out and defended Palin as he marketed the video. I think it was a two way street on that. Considering that no one else was really out there defending her, it was a great start for her to fight back in other ways and for John, it was notice, importance, acceptance and ultimately… money. After all, it was a commercial venture for him.
    The problem is that John thinks of himself as some sort of political expert and he has no experience at all in politics. His expertise is the same as anyone’s. I am not going to comment on all he said… sorry his life is so empty nowadays that he felt he just had to go public in a big way with this. (I notice the prominence that DC has given this…. hmmmm).
    I do want to comment that it seems his entire thinking that she does not have the support that she appears to have is based on one thing. He toured around the country trying to sell his video and since he did not sell very many, he concludes that her support is not strong. Well, maybe what is not strong is people’s interest in his video which is now over two years old and lets be honest…. most people are now educated on just how biased the media really is against Sarah and conservatives. His video is old news.
    I agree with you that he must have something commercial in the works and this is the start of his marketing efforts for his next money losing venture, only this time doing it negative. Is he doing a Huffington?

  2. serfer62
    June 13, 2011 at 1:37 pm

    There are 2 classes of women on the this issue, those who berate the Gov and those quietly but strongly in support.
    The secound group is heartyily cheered when I told them that Gov Plaion will win the nomination & the presidency

  3. Southern Conservative
    June 13, 2011 at 8:18 pm

    I will make a bet he is upset the “Undefeated” project was not given to him. Besides Palin, he seems most upset with Rebecca M. She is the one who met with Bannon.

  4. June 16, 2011 at 9:59 pm

    This is John Ziegler. Could you please explain to me where you got the insane idea that I wrote the article you are responding to for money? I made it clear at the new website that I was not paid and since it would be great for my movie, there is probbaly not a person on the planet with a greater incentive to promote an Obama/Palin matchup than me. Do you even care about the facts?

  1. June 13, 2011 at 11:26 am
  2. June 17, 2011 at 8:54 am
  3. June 21, 2011 at 10:11 pm

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