Home > General > Palin Gaining Momentum in GOP Race, Remains Most Popular Among Republicans

Palin Gaining Momentum in GOP Race, Remains Most Popular Among Republicans

Three polls to briefly look at this evening

First up, in a Public Policy Polling poll, we find that Sarah Palin remains the most popular (possible) candidate in the field.In fact, she is the only candidate with a favorability rating at least twice that of her unfavorable rating. She scores a 58% favorable among GOP voters compared to 53% for Romney, and has a 29% unfavorable compared to 32% for Romney. Gingrich has a pitiful 50% unfavorable among Republicans, while 3 Percent Pawlenty stands at 44% F, and 24% U.

Also, the establishment chorus of “she isn’t running” has seemed to make a mark in the survey, as just 29% of Republicans think she will run. However 40% of Democrats believe she will run. Oh, how surprised someone will be!

In primary poll, first we see Palin continues her momentum in new YouGOV/Economist data, and takes a 6% lead against Romney. She hits 20% for the 3rd time in the last 2 weeks, and this is the second poll showing her moving past Romney. Romney’s number may be a bit of an outlier, however, but it is one of the only polls I’ve seen to feature Rudy Giuliani and Rick Perry, who combine for 19% and seem to hurt Romney here. The establishment wisdom was that Giuliani would hurt Romney (as a popular moderate Republican) and Perry would supposedly hurt Palin. Might not be the case, but we need more polling to see if this i the case. Also note that the 3 pawns used by the media (who are not going anywhere) all come in at under 5% and finish 8th, 9th, and 11th out of 11 candidates.

Sarah Palin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Mitt Romney . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14%
Rudy Giuliani . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . 11%
Rick Perry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . . 8%
Herman Cain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . 7%
Newt Gingrich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . . .  . . . .  . . .5%
Ron Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .5%
Michele Bachmann . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. .   . . . . . .5%
Tim Pawlenty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3%
Jon Huntsman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
 

In a second poll, we see completely different results. If the previous poll was an outlier for Romney in a downward trend, this poll is an outlier for Romney in an upward trend and an outlier for Palin in a downward trend. However, as many have pointed out, this was only figured with a sample of 290 Republicans, so the whol survey might as well be tossed. Romney hasn’t come close to 30% with Palin in the race, and Palin hasn’t been below 15% for sometime.

Results with Palin have Romney at 30% and Palin at 14%, and all others under 10% (couldn’t find raw data.) But to further make my point of how out-of-hand the race is without Palin, and how she is the only one who can derail Romney:

 
Results without Palin
Romney…………………. 43%
Paul……………………….11%
Bachmann………………11%
Santorum………………..9%
Gingrich………………….8%
Pawlenty………………..7%
 

So yeah, without Palin in the race, Romney is getting close to the runaway races seen by Dubya and Gore in 2000.

 
 
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Categories: General
  1. June 15, 2011 at 7:34 pm

    lesson: unless we want Romney to win the GOP nomination, we have to get Sarah to run.

  2. June 16, 2011 at 8:30 am

    Thanks for pointing this out. According to a source at C4P, Palin will get in, but she’s taking her damn time about it.

  3. Franklin
    June 16, 2011 at 9:18 am

    That second poll is the NBC poll. That only polls 290 of the 1,000 people who said they would vote in a Republican primary. The sample they use is so small that it is nearly meaningless.

  4. Sue Lynn
    July 18, 2011 at 10:07 pm

    Sarah is running and will win. Next question.

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