Home > General > Poll Outliers: Today’s Go to Bachmann and Cain

Poll Outliers: Today’s Go to Bachmann and Cain

Expect the polls to keep coming! Luckily for most candidates there are so many polls that one of them is bound to have information  for them to tout in their favor. Today, both Herman Cain and Michelle Bachmann have a poll to point at and prove how formidable they are as candidates.

So, Michelle Bachmann will be pointing at today’s Rasmussen Reports poll, which shows her at 2nd place behind Mitt Romney. Of course the giant asterisk here is that Sarah Palin was not involved in the polling. And more importantly, she still gets just over half the support Romney is getting. So expect the establishment and MSM analysts to suggest there is no need for Sarah Palin, because there’s another attractive brunette already, okay? But there is a huge difference between Sarah Palin regularly tying, being within single digits of, or leading Mitt Romney and Michelle Bachmann coming in second place, but trailing Romney by 14%. So although Bachmann has improved, her improvement comes mostly at the benefit of Palin not being polled and Newt Gingrich losing half of his support (and likely going to Bachmann). But the other trouble is, as I have pointed out, without Palin in the race, no one comes close to Romney as he inches closer to being a clear runaway favorite.

Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling shows Cain with 17% and in second place to Romney’s 22%. Palin comes in third at 15%. This will definitely excite Cain, who averages about 10% in all non-PPP polls. (For whatever reason, Cain always scores exceptionally well in state and national primary polls done by PPP). Meanwhile, Bachmann won’t be braggin here as she scores only 8% with a larger field.

There are so many factors when looking at polls. You really have to look at all of the polls to get a good picture of the situation, and then can factor in or dismiss the one or two outliers.

Today, I listened to two radio show hosts, one who supports Bachmann and one who supports Cain. We can both imagine which poll those hosts were talking about (and which one they ignored. But one poll does not make a trend. Bachmann’s trend is mid to upper single digits. Cain’s trend is in the low teens. Both of todays polls would be considered outliers until a few other polls substantiated these findings. Romney trends in the low 20s in polls that include Sarah Palin, while he trends in the mid 30s in polls that do not include Sarah Palin. Sarah Palin recently trends in the 20% range, plus or minus 2 points. While Gingrich had been trending in the mid-teens, but has fallen to the upper singles lately.

Second thing to remember is: who is being polled? In today’s PPP survey, Mitt Romney scored between 17 and 27% depending on who was polled alongside him. Among currently announced candidates, he scored 27%. Among the same candidates but with Sarah Palin added he dropped to 22%. And then with a bunch of candidates who likely are not even running (Christie, Jeb, Giuliani, Palin) he dropped to 17%? So, there’s always that…

 

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Categories: General
  1. Franklin
    June 17, 2011 at 10:27 am

    Is Rasmussen really a outlier? It is somewhat consistent with other polls showing Palin not in the race. Romney with a double digit lead over the rest of the field.

    • June 20, 2011 at 8:55 am

      Well, the outlier is that Bachmann is at 19%, not that Romney polls well ahead of the field w/o Palin.

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