Home > General > GOP Primary Madness: Bachmann 5th behind 3 Unnanounced Candidates

GOP Primary Madness: Bachmann 5th behind 3 Unnanounced Candidates

There’s a bunch of primary polls from the last couple of days. The main thing to note is: There are too many variables right now. There are so many candidates and so many possible candidates that it is hard to determine who has the momentum. Since each pollster polls different sets of candidates, it’s hard to compare the fields and get a good picture of what’s going on. (One thing’s for sure, and that is Romney is usually at the top.)

In the overall possible field, the strong candidates remain Romney, followed by Palin and Giuliani who have a strong record of months of polling well. Rick Perry is attempting to enter this tier and has done so mainly on being talked about a lot over the past couple of weeks (will it last and will he enter?). Ironically, the same establishment word-of-mouth has not been so kind to Jon Huntsman. I guess that’s the difference between Utah and Texas? Finally, Bachmann is all over the map. She fares very well when potential candidates are not included in the polling.

Marist/McClatchy Nationwide: The “surge” candidate, Bachmann, falls to 5th with 8% behind three unannounced candidates in the new Marist College/McClatchy poll. Romney led with 19% while Perry (13%), Giuliani (13%), and Palin (11%) were bunched together right behind. When 37% of the vote goes to three unannounced candidates while the top four announced candidates only get to 37%, that says a lot about the current field. But it also shows the Bachmann’s main strength remains is that she is only the second most like among the current field. A Field that is relatively weak.

Gingrich (2%) has completely fallen from his mid-teens performance earlier this primary season, Cain (5%) continues to shed support, and Huntsman (2%) has remained where has always been despite a big push from the media.

Montana Primary: Not exactly a bell-weather primary, but it is an early primary. Here, Palin leads a tight bunch with 20% followed by Bachmann (18%) and Romney (17%). Minus Palin, Bachmann jumps seven to 25% ahead of Romney who jumps five to 22%. And if Giuliani and Perry were polled? Who knows.

Oregon Primary: Three familiar names as Romney leads with 28% followed by Bachmann (18%) and Palin (16%). Minus Palin, Bachmann jumps to 29% while Romney stays put at 28%.

Bachmann has clearly assumed the top position of the 2nd tier primary candidates. Previously, when Palin was removed from the polling, her support went evenly among all of the other candidates, a few points here and there. Now, Bachmann has taken much of the support from Gingrich, Cain, and Pawlenty in polling when Palin is included and she now gets the majority of support of Palin voters when Palin is not included. (Both polls here)

New Hampshire: In a field of 18 candidates and possible candidates in a Suffolk poll, Mitt Romney remains the easy frontrunner with 36%, followed by Bachmann at 11% and everyone else. Interestingly, 24% of Republicans in New Hampshire expect that Obama will win re-election next year. Not a lot of faith in the granite state. 59% of New Hampshire primary voters did not watch the debate that was held in their own state, just for them. Don’t they understand how important they are!!!! Ahem.

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Categories: General
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