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Ranking the Field: GOP Primary Edition

Polling has been a little slow, uneventful, and predictable lately, thus the slower posting rates here at Poll Insider. Plus, there are so many variables/candidates/possible candidates right now that it’s easier to give a general rundown of where I see the candidates (and potential ones) at this stage. I expect the field to be fully settled within the next 3-4 weeks. I don’t see that many candidates would want to sit out a majority of the 3rd Quarter fundraising term, nor do I believe many could afford to do so. I have a Q&A post coming up, so if you have any burning questions/bold predictions you want, ask me at pollinsider (@) gmail.com

Top Tier Candidates (One of these three will probably be the next GOP Nominee)

#1 MITT ROMNEY: It doesn’t really matter where you look, Romney sits atop just about every poll and primary poll that is released. He topped the fundraising charts, but it was an incredibly lackluster total for the frontrunner and the guy most “experts” believe will win the GOP nomination.

#2 SARAH PALIN: Palin remains the top challenger on the list for this very reason: She is polling very well despite Republicans, by a 2-1 margin, not thinking she is even running. Over 50% of Republicans do not think she will run, and barely 1/4 think she will. So, to poll where she does is quite the feat as most voters have probably “moved on” to the next candidate on the list, but would probably gravitate back to her if/when she enters.She also remains the most popular Republican in most polls.

#3 RICK PERRY: I’m less convinced that Perry is running, and more convinced that he is simply letting his name get out their for either a potential run or a VP slot. But what do I know, because all the experts say he is definitely running and Palin is not. I think it’s the other way around, but that’s just me. However, if Perry does get in, he has an incredible built in base and appeal Something about Texas Governors, right?

Second Tier Candidates

#4 MICHELE BACHMANN: What to make of Michele Bachmann? Bachmann right now is the beneficiary of “being there” and being the loudest anti-Romney voice at this current stage. I hesitate to move her into the top tier because she does not have a sustained polling trend. Right now I think she is still the “it” candidate of the moment, just as Trump was and Cain was for a short while. Most of her current support levels seem to be coming from a huge drop in support of Gingrich and drops in support from Cain as well. Additionally, with the current media mantra being that Palin isn’t running, so go vote for Bachmann, that has probably pushed her up a little as well. But I do not see the ground support or built in base that either a Romney, Palin, or Perry has. Also, I’m not convinced that even Bachmann supporters think she can take out Romney. I think Bachmann is destined to be runner up IF no one else enters the fold.

The Wannabe Candidate

Jon Huntsman – The no Labels, Charlie Crist-ish dweeb has the Bill Clinton stamp of approval. Needless to say, I don’t think the GOP establishment, RINO-Establishment, and media- lovefest has done much to help his credibility among GOP primary voters. He’s had perhaps the biggest introduction and push, but has yet to do much with it despite all of the free help. to me he comes off as arrogant and elitist and self-absorbed. It doesn’t help that he has the facial mannerisms of Al Gore (and the same climate policy!).

The Rest

Ron Paul – Has made little traction since he first starting running for President, oh, say, two decades ago. Sure he hangs around 10%, but that’s pretty much where he maxes out. He barely finished second in state-match-ups to mcCain in 2008, and that was when he was the only other candidate.

Herman Cain – Also seems to have tapped out his support. Has mixed reviews from Republicans. Appears to be losing momentum, not gaining it.

Newt Gingrich – Completely unpopular. Has tanked in the polls. Everyone has abandoned him. Why is he even wasting his time?

Rick Santorum – Looks depressed at every event and incapable of smiling. Talks to fast. No momentum and no money.

Tim Pawlenty – Still touted as Romney’s main rival for some reason. Must be the constant 4% in the polls he bangs up. Like I said, there is little room for a less eloquent, less attractive, poorly funded, noodle-spined version of Mitt Romney, and that is what Pawlenty is.

Categories: General
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