Home > General > Conservative’s Will Not “Split the Vote” and Hand Nomination to Romney; And Other Qs

Conservative’s Will Not “Split the Vote” and Hand Nomination to Romney; And Other Qs

Sorry for the lack of updates recently. I have been preparing a move that will enable me to call Marco Rubio my United States Senator. Plus, there actually hasn’t been much exciting to report poll-wise that hasn’t already been discussed here at length. This morning I do have a number of questions to answer from my mailbox. So, let’s have at it!

 

Q: Do you think a big field that included Palin, Bachmann, Perry, Paul, Cain would split the conservative vote and hand the nomination to Romney?

A: This is probably the biggest misconception out their today, that their are too many anti-establishment candidates up against Romney and that they will “spli the vote” and hand Romney the nomination. This would certainly be the case if ALL of the more conservative/Tea Party candidate types stayed in and battled for every primary the entire campaign. But let’s be honest, most of the candidates will drop out before a majority of the voting takes place, and many probably after Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. In 2008, by Super Tuesday (when few votes had been cast) previous frontrunners Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson were already out of the race, among a handful of other 2nd rate candidates. On the Democratic side in 2008 Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and Bill Richardson all left immediately following Iowa or New Hampshire. John Edwards was out before Super Tuesday, and only Clinton and Obama remained when 90% of the votes hate yet to be determined, and both battled until the end.

The first 4 states to go in 2012 (Iowa, NH, South Carolina, Nevada) account for less than 160 of the total 2,400+ delegates that will be selected, and none fall in the top 15 states in delegate count. Florida, the 5th state to go, is good for 99 delegates, but even with all pre-Super Tuesday states added up this is still barely 10% of total delegates awarded. The nominating process is all about momentum, and that is essentially what the first handful of states offer.

By Super Tuesday, there will likely be two candidates with momentum.  One will probably be Mitt Romney who looks good to win New Hampshire and Nevada. The winner of the Iowa caucuses will have the momentum for the South Carolina win. (However, it is possible that Romney wins Iowa due to the split votes of conservatives). If Romney wins Iowa, the second place finisher will have the momentum, and it will probably come down to South Carolina to determine the conservative alternative. Going into Florida, there will be two candidates with momentum from the previous states, and they will look to finish 1-2 in the state. The rest of the candidates will be pinning their hopes on a Florida victory to stay alive, but people who do not win something in the first 4 states usually do not win Florida.

So, by February 1st, you will probably have two candidates remaining, Mitt Romney and the Tea Party conservative alternative, and 90% of the delegates left to be decided. Let’s say Sarah Palin or Rick Perry (or whoever) wins Iowa and North Carolina and Romney wins New Hampshire, Nevada, and Florida. Bachmann, Cain, Pawlenty, Huntsman, etc would likely all be gone by Super Tuesday, and there is now effectively a 2 man race (and Ron Paul, who will never drop out, ever) left to battle over the next 2000+ delegates, with a scant couple hundred delegates decided to this point.

Many conservative activists and analysts get uptight that there are so many conservatives polling in the teens right now, but it is important to remember that since there isn’t a single voting day (which could split the vote and hand the nomination to a moderate) most of the candidates will not participate in a majority of the primaries or caucuses. This will come down to a two-person race, we just don’t know who the two-people are yet.

Q: Why is Palin waiting so long to announce? Is it due to the statute of limitations of frivolous lawsuits expiring soon? Do you think she will even run for President?

A: There is no doubt in my mind that Palin is running for President, as I have stated from day one here. I don’t think that Palin has waited an extraordinary amount of time. In 1999, Bush didn’t officially announce he was running until mid-June of that year and McCain didn’t announce until September! Sure, both had formed “exploratory committees” but Palin has essentially done that in her own way. Even this year, Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann just formally announced within the past few weeks and nobody is getting uptight over Rick Perry’s declaration (or not) of candidacy. As far as debates go, know when the first time George W. Bush entered a debate in 1999? Try December. Look, there is still nearly 6 months to go until the Iowa caucuses. That is a millennium in the age of 24/hour news and politics.

As for her announcement, is she waiting for the statute of limitations to expire? I’d guess not. If there were anything more they could have thrown at her in that capacity, they would have. My guess is she will have momentum starting this weekend with the release of The Undefeated (and the establishment will say she is sucking oxygen again). She will also be releasing her SarahPac fundraising numbers within the next week or two. My guess is they are strong since they will likely be released during her documentary release. Otherwise, they would have slipped the numbers out among all the other candidates disappointing fundraising hauls. (I also think Bachmann is holding back her figures hoping she raises more than SarahPac.) If Palin somehow hit around the $10 Million mark, that would be huge and big news, especially for a non-candidate. So, my guess is you will see a trifecta of the movie premier, followed the next week by a strong fundraising release, followed by an announcement of candidacy by the end of the month. But then, we are talking about Sarah Palin here.

Q: Do you think The Undefeated will help Palin’s presidential prospects?

A: I’ve noticed a big change in the way that the media has been covering Sarah Palin recently, most notably after the release of her e-mails from time as Governor. I think deep down, the media really believed what they were saying about Palin was true. They wanted to believe that Palin was mean, vindictive, controlling, aloof, stupid, unqualified… unpresidential. But I think as the ripped through her e-mails they noticed that they had spent all of this time destroying a good woman. They disagreed with her, sure, but nothing they said about her, implied about her, or simply wanted to be true was true. Couple this with The Undefeated. And here are the journalists, once again, learning stuff about Palin that they never knew to have existed. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the media will be voting for Palin en masse anytime soon, but for the first time they treat her as a serious person. Or at least as serious as they treat any other Republican. I think that there will be less snark in the future regarding Palin and more fact-based reporting (similar to the surprisingly fair Newsweek piece), and that will only help. Plus, I think the media has realized that Palin is not who they thought she was, but another female candidate actually fits the mold that was presented as Palin.

Q: Do you think Romney would choose Bachmann for VP if he were to win the nomination? 

A: No way in one billion trillion years would Romney pick Bachmann as his running-mate. Nobody will.Bachmann would be a major liability to Romney and she would attract more negative attention than anything. Recent stories about her clinic, her businesses and government subsidies, her total lack of experience other than voting in a way 200 other congressmen have voted, etc would haunt her for a year. Trust me, they would never let up on Bachmann. Field Day.

Romney is about as vanilla as they come. He has shown absolutely no interest in the Tea Party vote or conservatives in general. The VP slot is relatively meaningless. After all, Obama won with Joe Biden, Clinton with Gore, Bush with Quayle, and Bush 2 with a guy the media declared was Darth Vader. Romney would never pick someone who would upstage him. My guess is he would choose someone safe and harmless like Tim Pawlenty. Romney is about discipline and control, and Bachmann is too controversial of a pick.

 

 

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Categories: General
  1. Stanley Phillips
    July 13, 2011 at 8:26 am

    I’m supporting and voting for Madame President Michele Bachmann in 2012 and that’s that. It’s a done deal with me. My mind is already made up.
    the alledged ‘controversial” practices at Bachmann & Associate clinic are also being done by Sarah Palin’s church.
    Rep. Bachmann sponsored the Defund ACORN legislation in Congress, and the US Supreme Court recently upheld it. That’s accomplishment!!

    • Stacy Drake
      July 13, 2011 at 12:42 pm

      Sarah Palin wasn’t receiving federal money to turn gay people straight. A church she had attended, and was not a member of, took part in that sort of counseling at one point (in fact, I think it was an outside group anyway) but Sarah Palin had NOTHING to do with it. And she certainly wasn’t taking tax-payer money like Bachmann & Associates had done for years (which she lied about during an interview with Chris Wallace) to do it.. Nice try, but you cannot even compare the two. I have attended many churches in my past, some of which I’m sure took part in things considered “controversial” by some. Who knows? That’s not the issue. Bachmann has publicly criticized swelling Medicare payouts while simultaneously taking part in them. This is about more than whatever it is that Bachmann’s husband (who has no medical license) clinic does..

      • Stanley Phillips
        July 15, 2011 at 7:46 am

        It is strange how so called conservatives can engage in Saul Alinsky’s “Rules for Radicals,” while at the same time coughing up blood if the left uses them against Sarah Palin. You can wait for that “announcment,” from Sarah as long as you want to, but my Candidate is already in the fray. Michele Bachmann’s hat is already in the race. She’s here, she’s clear, Get over it.
        BTW, engaging in Faith based approach to counseling is NOT ,as you say,”Junk Science.”
        Medicare is an insurance program and it a legit form of payment for servies rendered.

    • July 13, 2011 at 2:56 pm

      Quit making up lies about Sarah. Palin is not connected to this story.

      • Stanley Phillips
        July 21, 2011 at 6:57 am

        Are you still spending your bucks on Palin gear, book, movies, speeches, Bristol’s books and anything else Palin, just waiting for that announcment that may never come. Oh wait a minute, she just may announce that she endorses Rick Perry for President. Wow, how does that grab your get up and go? Palin endorses Perry, comming to a breaking News report near you soon.

    • JRD
      July 13, 2011 at 3:10 pm

      Ditz Bachmann is an idiot and so is anyone who votes for her. Bachmann should have stayed in the congress to allow the Tea Party to exhibit a united front. Instead she sold out the Tea Party to try to take out Palin. She is so transparent. Everyone knows that she is a traitor to the Tea Party and sold them out for the Republican elites. She won’t even be in congress in a short amount of time. Bachmann’s career is O.V.E.R.
      Why would anyone want a fake who worked to elect Jimmah Carter when they can have the real Palin? Reason much?

    • Gary P
      July 14, 2011 at 11:29 pm

      Horseshit!

      Bachmann is the “pray-away-the-gay” lady. That’s all her. Oh, and Bachmann and her husband, who is gayer that Liberace’s house boy, are ripping off the government by stealing medicare money to pay for the junk science “treatment”

      Even better, Bachmann lied on national TV and claimed they were trying to convert gays.

      Bachmann is a fake, fraud, and a phony. She doesn’t even deserve to be in Congress. She’s nothing more than a lying crapweasel.

  2. John
    July 13, 2011 at 11:37 am

    Palin hasn’t belonged to “that church” since she was a teenager you fucking moron.

    • Stanley Phillips
      July 15, 2011 at 7:52 am

      Been reading Rules for Radicals I can tell.
      It won’t work with me. You still waiting for that Secret Bristol talked about that the Family made out on Da boat. Oh! Sarah has made up her mind about running, but shhhh! It’s a secret. Sarah says the discussions we had out on Da boat, stays out on Da boat. Try launching a Presidential campaign on a secret which MUST remain out on Da boat.

  3. Pete Petretich
    July 13, 2011 at 12:15 pm

    “…and Ron Paul, who will never drop out, ever.”

    Since Paul usually rates about 4-5%, could he end up being the queen-maker in a showdown with Palin and Romney? If he endorses Sarah at the appropriate time, he could get a nice retirement job right in the White House, don’t you think?

    • July 13, 2011 at 8:44 pm

      @ John 7-13-11 11:37 am . . . Not only will Wrong Paul never drop out, he’ll never endorse anybody, either; not that his endorsement would be worth its weight in Spam.

      Governor Palin would be utterly foolish to appoint Wrong Paul to any post in her Cabinet. Nor would he accept such a post if it were offered. His ego is simply too big.

  4. kim ippolito
    July 13, 2011 at 12:50 pm

    Prove your statement about Sarah Palin’s church! Give the link! For your information, go to youtube put her husbands name in and this ONE word, Barbarians, and you will hear a radio interview from Mr, Bachmann. Don’t you dare blame Sarah or anyone else for the Bachmann’s mistakes and beliefs.

  5. Cat
    July 13, 2011 at 2:03 pm

    Great article! Lots of insight.

  6. susiepuma
    July 13, 2011 at 2:30 pm

    Well, Stanley, you just go right ahead but Bachmann will not be on the Presidential ticket when the election finally occurs – but hey, dreams are free unless she needs more money….

    • KBB
      July 21, 2011 at 1:14 am

      I think “Stanley” is a liberal troll. No conservative I’m aware of talks like that – instant rudeness tinged with a dose of vicious, and at a level that’s not justified based on other comments. Also, “Stanley” makes lots of references to Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals. Again, not something a conservative (who would be planning on voting for any GOP candidate) would have on the tip of their tongue. Yep, “Stanley” is most likely fishing off this conservative pier.

  7. July 13, 2011 at 2:53 pm

    You have some of the best insights into the GOP 2012 race.

    Palin 2012

    No one else comes even close!

  8. chris
    July 13, 2011 at 3:53 pm

    “I’m supporting and voting for Madame President Michele Bachmann in 2012 and that’s that.”

    ROTFLMAO

    Is America this Stupid? Or is it just the Repulicans?

  9. Marinda
    July 13, 2011 at 4:01 pm

    Hey, not so fast. I’m hearing some saying Sarah’s church has the same view of gays as Michelle’s?

    So now the Teaparty and Sarah and all conservatives are gay haters? Thank you Michelle, you are hurting the conservative brand and Christians real fine. So the Bachmanns say gays should be punished. By whom? Self-righteous people like the Bachmanns ? Jesus would call these religious people snakes and hypocrites like he did when he was here on earth.

    Sarah does not sell prayer to gays, nice try! The gifts of God are free and the Bachmann’s are making money of it, con artist, the kind that Jesus and Paul rebuked in the new Testament.

    Jesus came for the sinners, had compassion on them. He had hard words for religious people though.

  10. David
    July 13, 2011 at 4:55 pm

    Great analysis! Thanks!

  11. Franklin
    July 13, 2011 at 5:07 pm

    My question is whether $10 million is realistic for a leadership pac. If she could match what others are raising, that would certainly be an embarassment to the people currently in. I’ve heard a lot of people say they would contribute to a presidential fund but not a leadership pac and I can understand their position.

    As to Bachmann, I saw one of her people say that they have not had much time to do any fundraising. That suggests it could be pretty much inline with the other candidates. Also saw a story where they were using ipads to sign people up for the straw poll. Interesting to see how much money they are burning through.

  12. raymond
    July 13, 2011 at 5:24 pm

    Your Madame President bachmann will surely lose to Obama. let us be realistic. Only Sarah Palin can beat Obama. Likewise, you have to reconsider you position and admit that most senators and congressmen who became presidents are not effective presidents because they lack skills in executive governance. They do not do executive decision making. Most of the time these senators and congressmen just sit, talk to each other during sessions and their major work is raising their hands and just vote for either yes or no. Look at Obama, the reason why he is a weak president is because he is a senator and not as governor, Effective leadership cannot be learned from Harvard. Leaders are made of. With the exception of GW Bush, both Reagan and Clinton are effective presidents because they have been effective governors. Sarah Palin was an effective governor of the Alaska and has 80% approval rating. She made enemies from within GOP because she put those corrupted republicans into prison. A true leader is you have to do what you have to do for the best interests of the constituents and not for the interest of the establishment.

  13. raymond
    July 13, 2011 at 5:39 pm

    Dear republicans and conservatives,

    This is just an honest warning: do not ever push Romney or Bachmann to be the GOP nominee. Both these GOP establishment candidates will just lose big time to Obama. Elect someone who Obama and his cohorts fear the most: Sarah Palin. Use your common sense, if you still have. Why?? Even since after 2008 election, Sarah Palin has been vetted by these liberals and Obama’s cohorts? It is simply because Sarah Palin has indirectly organized and developed huge loyal legions that are ready to fight for her should she unleash her sword. This was proven last 2010 congress elections. Secondly, all the necessary war machines were unleashed already to destroy Sarah Palin, and she is still here, remain strong and standing tough and a more threat to Obama’s re-election bid. These liberals and Obama’s cohorts were left of no more ammunitions to destroy Palin and that is why their strategy now is doing a black propaganda that either Romney or Bachmann is a viable candidate to beat Obama. THIS IS JUST A DIVERSIONARY TACTIC. I have been in socialist country and i know the evil strategies of these evil lefties. I HAVE BEEN THERE WITH THEM. EXPERIENCE IS THE BEST TEACHER…

    • July 13, 2011 at 9:03 pm

      Well said, Raymond.

      Anybody who doubts that the left and Obonzo are terrified at the prospect of facing Governor Palin in 2012 should ask himself one question:

      When was the last time any political party spent so much time, effort and money to destroy a losing Vice Presidential candidate?

      The Republicans didn’t try to destroy John Edwards, Lloyd Bentsen, Walt Mondale or Sargent Shriver. For that matter, the Democreeps didn’t seem to lose much sleep over Jack Kemp, Bob Dole, William Miller or Henry Cabot Lodge once those men had been defeated in Vice Presidential bids.

      Being a losing Vice Presidential candidate traditionally has been a one-way ticket to poltical oblivion all by itself.

      Why did Obonzo and the Democreeps feel that they needed some measure of “insurance” this time around, if they didn’t see Governor Palin as a threat to their political supremacy?

  14. Carol
    July 14, 2011 at 1:09 am

    Sarah Palin is the only one who can beat Obama. The left have already pulled every dirty trick they could on her. They even told lies about her. Media doesn’t have to back up what they say any more. They told many lies about Palin by the time they were corrected the election was over. The media has not really gone against Bachmann or Romney they will wait till the person is picked. The left say they would love Palin to go against Obummer but what they say is the opposite of what they say. They know Palin will face Obama and win. The media will destroy anyone but Palin. The media went after Palin for her goof ups but never said a word about Obama. I know another four years of Obama and we will be doing a lot of remember whens. The USA will no longer be a beacon for people who want to be free.
    We have to stop believing the worse of someone without checking it out. Romney is an establishment republican. Palin can win I have no doubt about it. It would be a really hard run for Michelle or Romney. Obama says he needs one billion to buy his votes. Look at the lies Obama is nothing but a thug and chief.

  15. ted bertrand
    July 15, 2011 at 11:33 pm

    GO MITT

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