Home > General > Palin and Romney know the same thing: Few are paying attention + Perry Should Enjoy it Now

Palin and Romney know the same thing: Few are paying attention + Perry Should Enjoy it Now

Believe it or not, in their quests (or probable quest in Palin’s case) for the GOP nomination both Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney are working under the same premise: No one is paying attention right now. Sure, some people are paying attention. But  that “some” is probably you and me and maybe 5% of the rest of the voting population. Figure that between just 2-5 million people have watched any of the debates thus far. While Thursday night’s 5 million viewers was impressive for primary debate standards, it still represents less than 4% of the usual voter turnout. That means 96% of the 2012 voting public (among them at least 52 million McCain voters) on a Summer Thursday night, against little other programming, in the middle of a depression, during a media-hyped GOP race, with a chance to pick a candidate to throw out the Golfing Fundraiser-in-Chief, couldn’t even be bothered to tune in.

Palin knows this. And Romney knows this. And this explains each of their strategies.

For Palin, she expressly states there is no need to be in this early because, tada, most people are not paying attention. Sure, the media obsesses over “announcements” because it’s the media and they probably want as much advance notice as possible to find more junk to throw her way. Plus, they need stuff to talk about, and who better than Palin to help ratings for dying media types? And yes, her supporters can’t wait because they just want to know, but they also make up part of the well-informed 5% of the population. (Another 15% are probably decently informed and the other 80% are clueless). Hence, the 80-20 rule I discuss frequently.

While most normal candidates need to enter early to build name recognition, gather donors, and lock down big campaign strategists, Palin would obviously not run a campaign that is dependent on multiple high-paid strategists who are more interested in their next paycheck than being devoted to the candidate they are working for (see: Newt Gingrich). Palin’s campaign would be heavy on the grassroots, and she easily has the largest volunteer grassroots organization and a highly active base nationwide who are working on her behalf (and have been for sometime).

For Romney, he also knows that people are not paying attention. This is why he has chosen his battles carefully and has remained completely out of sight. Other than two debates, Romney has been impossible to find. But guess who remains at or near the top of every poll, just as he has for over a year? And no one can find him! Why, because if 96% of the population isn’t looking anyway, how would they know he is missing? Romney’s early announcement was made, not to start campaigning, but to start fundraising, gaining big donors, and locking down support from the GOP establishment. He knows that few voters are paying attention and has said as much. Why would he risk going to townhall after townhall at this stage, knowing there will be little upside but many the opportunity for blundering?

As for the rest of the candidates, you can see two things. First, that announcing (early, later, or in between) has done little for any of their campaigns in the long run. Cain announced early, but after an initial hit and rise in interest, Cain has dropped from the 10%-ish range to the 5%-and under group. Pawlenty, who followed the Media-approved early announcement strategy fell from a 7% average to a 2% average. Gingrich rocked the low-mid teens for a while, but now rocks 5% too, on a good polling day. Bachmann was once a 6-8% kinda gal, then popped into the midteens, and has returned to being a 6-8% kinda gal (7%, 7%, 8% in 3 recent major polls).You could lump in Trump and probably Perry (the new new flavor of the month) in this group as well. But just because all of my predictions on Bachmann, Huntsman, Cain, Gingrich, and Trump have come to fruition, it doesn’t mean I will be right about Perry (but I will be).

All of these candidates announced at different times. All of them had a short time frame when they were the “it” candidate. The Media Flavor of the Month. Right now, Perry is the flavor of the month. Why? Because 96% of the population is not paying attention. Everything they know comes from passing, a brief blip on the tv or radio, or by word of mouth. And these are the people who are polled, and this is why the race changes so dramatically so often, with so many new and frequent “frontrunners” challenging Romney.

As Palin has said, most people are not interested in the primary process right now, most people are worried about their families, their jobs, their kids, and what to make for dinner tonight. She is right. Being the most politically interested of my family and friends, I nevertheless have many friends and family who fall into the 96% group. These are people who know and follow politics to a degree, but are not uber-involved in the process and what is going on.I know this because I talk to people all the time, people ho are somewhat involved in politics, vote in every primary, and talk politics with me regularly. How many heard of “The Undefeated”? None. Why? Because knowing it existed would have required a deeper following of the primary process. I also know this because I am the one who gets the calls, texts, and emails… “what do you think about Perry” … “who is this Bachmann” … “I like this Cain guy, what do you think?” All of these messages come at the time the candidate is the “flavor of the month.” For the record, the only texts I get about Huntsman are: “who’se the squeeky voiced, uber-dork, and did he get lost on his way to file for the democrat primary.” I jest, I jest! It’s usually just, “Who’s the uber-dork?”

So, whats my point? My point is, it doesn’t matter when candidates announce. It seems that everyone is spacing out their announcement for maximum flavor-of-the-monthage. The media reports about them and why they are “it,” it filters out to the masses in bits and pieces, and then they get a bump in polls until the media moves on.  I’m quite certain the media could invent a candidate named “Joe barbery” and talk about him, without showing pictures, speeches, or saying where he is from, but by hyping him as “Romney’s new challenger” he could probably break double digits for a month or two. Making it stick is what counts. To date, only two candidates have done that. Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney are the only 2 candidates to have average above 10% in polling for every month over the last 12 months. Cain and Bachmann had a 2 month run of double-digits, while Trump hits double digits and started tanking fast before dropping out altogether.

Perry has got a little over a month on his belt in the double digits, but I know very few people who know anything about him other than “he’s from Texas and Texas leads the nation in economic growth.” That’s about all anyone knows about Rick Perry that I have spoken too. But hey, the media keeps talking about him, so there must be something there! And they keep talking about how conservative he is, only he is more of a Bush-conservative. Which is to say he is somewhere between the conservatism of Bush 41’s “no new taxes” and Bush 43’s big government spending binge, and illegal-immigration-loving ridiculousness. The biggest problem with the “flavor-of-the-month” candidates is that people choose the flavor of the month, and just assume they are everything they want them to be. But then Cain comes out and is incapable of answering any questions requiring much knowledge, even though we know he is a “problem-solver.” And Bachmann come off as a little bit of crazy and self-obsessed with over-exaggeration tendencies, and her husband has that weirdish-wimp vibe. Then it turns out Trump is a socialized-healthcare, left-wing supporting, pro-abortion, global warming lunatic.

It’s possible Perry “surges” this week in polls since he is announcing, and might even start overtaking Romney. Welcome to the club. But can you stay there? With Palin lurking in the background, I’d say good luck, and you have a lot of hype and expectations to maintain. What happens when the media decides they don’t like you anymore? The candidate that the media builds, is also the candidate the media destroys. This week they talk about how conservative you are and how much the conservative base will love you. Next week, they “discover” your a big ole RINO, alert the same people they got to like you, and let the fireworks start. But hey, enjoy it while it lasts.

 

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Categories: General
  1. ayamo
    August 13, 2011 at 4:51 pm

    I completely agree … just another flavor candidate of the month who will soon fade away into the normal life of politics.

  2. ayamo
    August 13, 2011 at 4:52 pm

    I completely agree … just another flavor candidate of the month who will soon fade away into the normal life of politics.

    A question for you, though … I read at Nate Silver’s blog that he thinks the GOP House Majority is in serious jeopardy. Do you agree?

  3. August 14, 2011 at 12:36 am

    I don’t think Romney knows what Sarah does, I think Romney is just hiding because he thinks he can get away with it because he’s “next”. I think Romney doesn’t really care or like the “people” and the less he is around anyone that’s ok with him. I think he knows the more he has to talk and be around us the more we will figure out what fraud he truly is, same with Bachman. You heard it from the press, she wouldn’t talk to anyone and she was late to her speech’s and only spent minutes with people. They know somethings up but not what it is. This will not be the same ol same ol election, this is going to be nuclear and none of them really knows that, except one 🙂

  4. serfer62
    August 14, 2011 at 5:53 pm

    Ref #2 I get the same impression. As several of the past Speakers have dissappeared I hope its Boehners turn…to dissappear. He is the reason OHbama got a 2.4T birthday present.

  5. AHerald
    August 14, 2011 at 9:20 pm

    Smart thinking, smart writing. First time reader who’ll pay a lot more attention to this site from now on.

  6. SiennaP
    August 15, 2011 at 4:26 pm

    I am a Sarah Palin fan through and through but I have to tell you that I’m impressed with Perry as well. Is he perfect? NO. BUT, he looks like a real man and he would clean the floor with Obama. I would LOVE to see that debate! I am now a little nervous that Palin and Perry will compete with each other and allow Mitt to get through. Ugh! My husband, who until now was a Palin guy, is now convinced that Perry is the one as are some of my friends who also were Palin supporters. I find myself unable to argue too much. He looks Presidential AND sounds convincingly Presidential as well.

    Someone wrote: “Because presidential politics tend to be more visceral than intellectual, Perry’s coyote-killer good looks, $2,000 hand-tooled cowboy boots, supernova smile and Armani suits, combined with podium skills to embellish the mythology of Texas, all will create a product Americans will want to believe and buy.” yup. It’s undeniable.

    • August 16, 2011 at 2:33 am

      If we are going to win the election of 2012, it has to be an election of the country class vs. the elite ruling class. We have to reclaim power from the establishment. Rick Perry has a nice Texas accent, but don’t let that fool you. Have you seen him at any TEA Party events? Did he support any candidates in 2010? Has he written policy statements on all the issues that are going to be front and center in the 2012 election? Perry is an establishment Republican of the Bush dynasty. He can not be the champion of We,the People in 2012.

      Both Perry and Bachmann are talking about Obama being a one term President and Taking back DC from Obama but neither gets past the sound byte stage.

      Perry will not get TEA Party support due to his previous lack of interest and non-involvement. His opposition to the Arizona Immigration bill also will not help him.

      The race will be between Palin and Romney. A properly vetted Perry will not take votes from Palin but will split votes with Romney, so welcome to the race Rick.

    • August 18, 2011 at 7:18 pm

      I wouldn’t count on looks and besides it is superficial. He may look and act the part but he isn’t anywhere as savvy as Palin. When Palin announces and begins to debate on merits that aren’t fake, people will realize how more true of a Patriot she is.

  7. SiennaP
    August 15, 2011 at 4:27 pm

    Also, there’s only one thing I want more than a Palin win and that’s an Obama defeat and Perry looks poised to do that.

  8. August 15, 2011 at 10:28 pm

    Romney has been campaigning nonstop. He has been campaigning in New Hampshire so the media attention is focused on Iowa and he doesn’t get as much publicity this week that is to be expected. Getting donors lined up is important and yes getting some on board early is what you need to do. But let’s face it Palin is like a GOP rock star she decides when she decides because she can. The other GOP candidates could not get away with that. I understand people are not paying attention as much as they will but these are the hard core, the people who will knock on doors and work so getting in late is not a good idea unless you are Sarah Palin.

  9. August 16, 2011 at 1:01 am

    I would be very careful about Perry. He does have good oratory skills, and he is a handsome devil! In the 1800s, he would have done well as a snake oil salesman or a circuit riding evangelical preacher. But like the snake oil salesman and circuit riders of yesteryear, there is often more there than meets the eye. Certainly he was a former Democrat as I once was, but unlike Perry, I cut my ties to that world with an axe while Perry simply has kept them tied to him through the magicians knot. Huffpo carried rather flattering remarks by Bill Clinton, and certainly he should because Rick Perry was his NAFTA soldier boy on the Texas Prairie. He worked on Al Gore’s campaign as something far more important than a leaflet distributor, and stumped for him throughout the state of Texas like a long horn on cattle drive. He may have changed his ticket to Republican when he joined the Bilderbergs, and has continues to display the rhetoric of a Ted Kennedy groomsman. In March of 2011, long after the election was over, he was back over with LaRaza, (the Hispanic KKK) proclaiming the Caesar Chavez “Yes We Can” in Spanish that Obama borrowed after his New Hampshire loss in 2008 at Ted Kennedy’s behest. My son, not a resident of Texas but a legal US citizen, would have to pay out of state tuition in Texas; but an illegal from Mexico would go to school free.

    I fail to see what Rick Perry has to offer as POTUS that I don’t already have. A silver tongued devil with a line of dug wrapped in a silver tongue. I think the American People deserve better than the smoke and mirrors of Perry, Romney, or Obama.

  10. mj-
    August 16, 2011 at 1:36 am

    Read today’s American Thinker about Perry’s Pals and bet many will change their minds…

  11. August 25, 2011 at 7:57 am

    Agree.

  12. Olga Garber
    August 25, 2011 at 8:27 am

    Perry and Romney both have “skeletons” in their closets ( Gardasil and Romneycare), but Palin has nothing in her past to defend or explain. Many people accuse her of being a quitter because she left the governorship early, but “The Undefeated” shows that she was being buried under a mountain of frivolous lawsuits. The Republican candidate has to be someone who can go to Obama’s territory and reach out to minorities, and I believe Palin will be comfortable listening to and asking for the African-American and Hispanic vote. We can’t just concede that segment of the electorate. Also, don’t underestimate the power of enthusiasm. Obama got the benefit of newly-energized young people, but there are plenty of out of work, disillusioned voters who won’t be so excited about going to the polls for him next time. Palin, however, has many followers who will do the necessary work of putting up yard signs, writing letters to the editor, telling their friends in person and on Facebook why they like Palin, putting a bumper sticker on their cars, donating, and finally making phone calls and going door-to-door at election time. I don’t see that level of commitment in any other politician’s backers.

  1. August 13, 2011 at 12:26 pm
  2. August 13, 2011 at 2:23 pm
  3. August 25, 2011 at 6:53 am
  4. August 25, 2011 at 8:20 am

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