Home > General > Palin 47% Obama 47%: Turnaround & Why Marist Poll Is No Fluke

Palin 47% Obama 47%: Turnaround & Why Marist Poll Is No Fluke

So, there has been much debate about a recent Marist Poll that shows Sarah Palin within 5% of Barack Obama and whether or not this is a fluke. For one thing, the numbers are actually closer to 47% Palin, 47% Obama, a tie. The Marist poll actually oversamples Democrats compared to Republicans by 8 points, and oversamples both of them with Independents. In their released data, the sample was 39% I, 34% D, 26% R. (There has been a rise in Indy voters, but not to the tune of almost 40% of the population. Using historical trends, the anticipated 2012 Voter Turnout rate is 36% D, 36% R, 28% I. If your prefer the Rasmussen Partisan Preference it’s essentially a 3-way tie at 33.5% R, 33% D, and 33.5% I. In either scenario, you end up with a 47-47 tie.

The good news here for Palin again is that among the 6% Undecided, 67% are Independents, 20% are Republicans, and just 13% are Democrats. Undecideds usually tilt towards the challenger and in this case those undecideds are mostly Obama-Disapproving Independents followed by Republicans.

So, beyond reworking the numbers, how do we know that the poll is not a fluke? The easiest way to see it is not a fluke is because this surge only happened in Obama vs Palin, but not in Romney vs Obama. If it were merely growing discontent with Obama and a desire to elect a Republican, we would assume that all candidates would have surged equally or, at worst, half as much.

In reality, Palin’s 44% is 9-14 points higher than her previous efforts in any Marist poll taken this year, where her other numbers were 30% (twice), 34%, and 35%. Meanwhile, Obama was down 7 points against her, a bigger drop than against any other candidate. Compare this: Romney has seen virtually no movement. At 44% now, that is little different than his three previous numbers of 41%, 42%, and 45%. Whereas Obama had fallen 7 points against Palin, Obama has held firm at 46% in 4 straight polls against Romney. So why would the Obama-Romney match-up remain the same for 4 test cycles while Palin closes a 21-pont gap?

1) They Got Nothin: The e-mails were supposed to prove Palin was an alloof, stupid, petty, vindictive, beauty queen. Instead, after digging through thousands of e-mails, they were astonished to find that Palin was none-of-the-above and was actually, watch out, a good Governor! Ever since the e-mail fiasco, I have seen a complete 180 in how the media treats Sarah Palin. I think they wanted to believe everything they were saying about her was true, but it just didn’t turn out that way.

2) Failed Smear Campaigns: The “gotcha” books were so poorly received, useless, and petty that even the anti-Palin liberals liked Palin more after reading the books that were out to get her. Just wait until Levi’s book comes out.

3) Palin = Breath of Fresh Air compared to other candidates. The non-politician stands out in a crowd of wishy-washy establishment cronies.

4) Independents: Palin has always made a case for being an Independent. She fights the GOP establishment just as hard as she does Obama. This is paying off.

5) Leading the Debate: It sure does seem that everything comes back to Palin. She coins words and phrases that others grab and run with. She launches attacks on the President that become mainstream positions for the rest of the field.

Categories: General
  1. David Kappeler
    September 21, 2011 at 4:21 pm


  2. David
    September 21, 2011 at 6:59 pm

    When you look at the 71% of GOP voters and GOP leanning independents do not want her to run,are they really seriuos?I take it every candidate has a certain % of base supporters who will not change course no matter what.Its in the 40-50% range for most,Ron Paul gets 90% as we all know his base is there everytime he runs none of them budge.So add those #s and you get roughly 55%.Then you can add in another 15% -20% who want Giulianni or Cristie or some other undeclared and your at that 70-75% range.Anyone who is committed to a candidate of course does not want her to run out of fear it will hurt their picks chances.Its very encouraging to see 24% wanting her to run.She could get that 24% just by announcing and be in the top 3,tied with,or even the frontrunner almost instantly.It amazes me how stupid these media people think we are out here with stupid polls like this 70% do not want her to run.They keep pushing these scams thinking people hav’nt a clue whats really going on.In a 3 way race she only needs that 24% knowing Paul and 1 or 2 others will stay untill the end therefor locking out a good 15-20% of the vote.It comes down to who gets the highest % of the remainning 80 -85%.She could win it all with only 28-30% of the primary vote and that is what scares the heck out of the establishment and political class.

    • September 21, 2011 at 7:08 pm

      The only reason the % of Republicans who say they don’t want her to run is so high is because the Media/GOP Establishment is constantly saying she can’t win, and that is what some voters are worried about. But, this will change if polls like this keep coming around…

      • OregonLinda
        September 22, 2011 at 1:18 am

        What gets me is that they never ask that question about any other candidate. I have a feeling they would get a big number for all the candidates, and I would bet they would get a huge number for Obama. All it is measuring is people who are for another candidate right now. But that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t support Palin in the general.

  3. David
    September 21, 2011 at 7:33 pm

    So what was the exact breakdown Marist used for the poll?

  4. Bill589
    September 23, 2011 at 6:49 pm

    It appears that the more people get past the LSM lies and know the real Palin – the more people like her.

    It appears that the more people know about her opponents, the less they are liked.

    The truth is on Palin’s side. Let everything about the candidates come to light, and let the best person win. IMO – that will be Sarah Palin.

  5. September 24, 2011 at 2:46 pm


  1. September 21, 2011 at 8:19 pm
  2. September 21, 2011 at 9:26 pm
  3. September 22, 2011 at 1:01 pm

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