2012 Senate Projections

Latest Update: 4/22/2011

2012 Senate Projections. This Page will be Continuously Updated to reflect Polling Data and Shifts in information, addition of candidates.

Current Senate Breakdown: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

2012 Pre-Election breakdown: 37 Republicans, 30 Democrats, 33 Races (Republicans +7 Start)

Current Projection – with Toss-ups: 51 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 5 Toss-Ups

Current Projections – All Seats, No Tossups/With Leans: 52 Republicans (+5), 48 Democrats (-5)

Current Projection – Split Toss-Ups: 53-54 Republicans, 46-47 Democrats

Breakdown 2012

Safe/Very Likely Democrat holds (7):

California (Feinstein) Connecticut (Open) Delaware (Carper) Maryland (Cardin) Rhode Island (Whitehouse) Washington (Cantwell), Vermont (Sanders)

Safe/Very Likely Republican Holds (7 ):

Indiana (Lugar), Maine (Snowe), Mississippi (Wicker), Tennessee (Corker), Texas (Open), Utah (Hatch), Wyoming (Barasso)

New Total: 44 Republicans, 37 Democrats, 19 Races To watch

The Races to Watch

This is a very rough sketch. Analysis will be added as candidates enter and leave the race, polling data becomes available, and information changes on the ground.

Arizona: Jeff Flake is the first announced candidate to replace the retiring John Kyl. Democrats have openly expressed that they are willing to exploit the Gabrielle Giffords shooting to win the seat, and are even considering running her in the race. (Leans R)

Florida: Bill Nelson could be vulnerable. His favorability ratings remain decent, but his vote for healthcare remains an attacking point and it is unpopular in the state. Plus, the showing by Tea Party candidate Marco Rubio in 2010 put the establishment (both D and R) on notice. Nelson has yet to have a good challenger for the seat, facing run-for-everything-everytime Bill McCollum and media-destroyed Katherine Harris in 2006. Charlie Crist would have probably been an easy win here if he had bowed out of the GOP Primary and backed Rubio, but instead looks DOA in Florida Politics. FL Senate President Mike Haridopolos raised an impressive $2.6 Million in the first quarter, outpacing Nelson’s $2 Million raised. Also in the race is unpopular Crist do-boy George Lemieux and possibly the most conservative option, State House leader Adam Hasner. (Tossup D)

Hawaii: Daniel Akaka is retiring from the Senate. For the Democrats, Ed Case is in so far. For the Republicans, the only names that would have a distant shot are former governor Linda Lingle, Lt Governor Duke Aiona, and former congressman Charles Djou. Djou is the newest blood and would probably put up an interesting fight. But, this is Hawaii, and Obama’s coattails will probably be good and long. (Leans D)

Massachusetts: Congrats Scott Brown, you are the most popular politician in the state, especially good news for a Republican and he might not even pick up a big-name challenger. His centrism has brought anger from the Tea Party who got him there and he actually looks good to hold this seat for the GOP. One upside for Tea Party: When the time comes, he seems to be a reliable vote to repeal Obamacare. Brown leads most candidates not named Kennedy by double digits, and leads those name Kennedy by 5+(Leans R)

Michigan: Debbie Stabenow isn’t too popular in Michigan these days. Republicans made big gains here in 2010, just like in most states. Recent polling put Stabenow on the hot seat where she leads by slim 1-4% margins against 3 potential Republican Challengers. Pete Hoekstra will not run, leaving the door open for former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, who won two statewide elections in landslides.  (Toss-up D)

Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar has decent leads in the Land of Voter Fraud and Unions, and it was one of the few states to ignore the 2010 GOP sweep. Good luck, Republicans! (Leans D)

Missouri: Claire McCaskill: Has already picked up the nickname ObamaClaire for her support of, well you can figure it out. One poll shows her in trouble in this right-leaning state. (TOSSUP R). State voted against Obamacare and overwhelmingly in favor of a recent referendum opposing the bill. Sarah Steelman is in, but failed to raise any solid cash in 1st quarter reporting (less than $200k).

Montana: Jon Tester (D) is getting a challenge from Denny Rehberg, the state’s lone congressman. Rehberg’s has a big advantage in that Montana voter’s are used to voting for him statewide, usually by 2-1 margins. Tester barely ousted Conrad Burns in 2006 despite Conrad’s high unpopularity and ongoing scandal at the time. And now Tester has an Obamacare vote on his resume. Polling: PPP – Rehberg 48% Tester 46%; Rehberg Internal – Rehberg 49% Tester 43%. (Leans R)

Nevada: Ensign is out. Says it has nothing to do with affair, but we aren’t buying that. Dean Heller is in. And Sharon Angle is running for Heller’s Congressional seat. Polling shows Heller with comfortable margins against a number of Democrat challengers. (UPGRADE to Leans R).

New York: Interesting only if Giuliani or Pataki were to get in. If that doesn’t happen, she coasts (Leans D)

Nebraska: Ben Nelson (D) looks to be a goner after having his “but I’m a conservative Democrat” card revoked, but at least he is brave enough to stand up in front of the voters, so far. Two polls show AG Jon Bruning winning by comfortable double digit margins  52%-38% and 50%-39%. (Leans R)

New Jersey: Menendez (D) is not all that popular, but Republicans keep putting up moderate candidate Tom Kean Jr. as “the only candidate who can win” year after year. Polls showed Kean close, but don’t they always? Voters might be better served running an interesting Tea Party candidate. (Leans D)

New Mexico: Jeff Bingaman Out: For the Dems, Congressman Martin Heinrich is in and leads the field. Heather Wilson leads the Republican field and is in, (TOSSUP D)

North Dakota: 2010 was devastating for supposed “conservative democrats” in states like ND. Forever-termer Byron Dorgan (D) ran scared and retired in time for popular Rep Governor Hoeven to win some 76% of the vote to become the next Senator. Also, 18-year Dem congressman lost by 10% after voting for Obamcare. Now, Kent Conrad (D) won’t stand up to his voters and instead chose to retire. (Likely R Pickup)

Ohio: Sherrod Brown defeated the whimpy Mike DeWine in 2006. No big challengers yet, perhaps Ken blackwell will get in. Until he gets a challenger it’s (Leans D)

Pennsylvania: A true Purple state, went for Tea Party Toomey in 2010 but Casey plays the “middle” very well and leads most challngers by 20ish points. (Leans D)

Virginia: Once is enough for Jim Webb. Fearing a possible rematch against George Allen, Webb bails. Might have been better that way. Virginia went uber-conservative in the latest statewide races and decimated the democratic congressional delegation there. And Webb only managed a 1% victory against Allen, mostly because of weeks of MSM scandal-creating in his favor. George Allen meanwhile raised $1.5 Million in the first quarter and will probably face Tim Kaine in the general. (Leans R)

West Virginia: Call it the sucker state. This is the most conservative state that can’t help but to continuously vote for old hat, liberal Democrats. Despite Joe Manchin’s run to the right in the special election vote, he quickly showed his Dem credentials by casting a vote to not repeal Obamacare, despite campaigning that the bill was bad. This state (Leans D) because all the residents suffer from battered spouse syndrome.

Wisconsin: What a weird state. Obama wins handily, then Feingold gets creamed by an unknown right-winger. Well, Herb Kohl is up in 2012 and polls well against has-been Republicans. The GOP scored a victory in holding onto a Supreme Court seat that the dems positioned as a referendum on Republicans. The Wisconsin Republicans seem to carry a pair, and would be served well by another Walker or Johnson in the race, but no one has hopped in yet. (Tossup D)

  1. bitterclinger
    March 25, 2011 at 7:54 pm

    Being a Virginian, I’m thrilled that Jim Webb is leaving the senate. Unfortunately, he said he’s not stepping out of the spotlight.

    Anyhoo, I was speaking with some real political junkies at a tea Party mtg. this week and they explained how, in this upcoming race, George Allen is the incumbent because he was the last R to hold the seat. He also presents the biggest challenge because of his personal wealth and ability to raise funds. Among the old-school R’s, Allen is their man; among the Tea Party types, it’s Jamie Radtke, founder of the Richmond Tea Party.

    Corey Stewart is an anti-immigration powerhouse from Prince William County (he’s on the Brd of Sprvsrs and seeking re-election), but that’s his main issue.

    Del. Bob Marshall has said he’s considering a run, but I don’t think too many folks will be impressed. He’s a nice guy, basically conservative, but easily swayed. He’s also getting up in years.

    Can’t wait to see future posts on this race.

  2. serfer62
    June 13, 2011 at 1:39 pm

    Forget hawaii…it is die hard Kommiecrat. There would be a very slim chance if the GOP candidate was Japanese, but Case ain’t & he won’t.

  3. July 25, 2011 at 7:55 am

    Josh Mandel R the Ohio State Treasurer has been endorsed by the Senate Conservativve Fund Has raised 2.3 million as of 6/30 more than Brown D liberal this should be R pickup http://senateconservatives.com/site/races
    Also in Wisc Herb Kohl is retiring so it should be open season since no one has jumped in yet

  4. August 5, 2011 at 11:11 am

    Pennsylvania is no longer a safe haven for Casey there is a new man on the block that is serious about winning http://www.johnvernon2012.com then look at his Facebook info. Ret Col 32 years military service, knows govenment waste from 2 years as an Inspector General but was ignore by people around him.

  5. Raymond
    September 14, 2011 at 10:56 pm

    There can be real change in West Virginia in 2012. We can get rid of the two party system and have real change if you only believe in it. My name is Raymond V. Davis III and I am running for US House of Representatives in 2012 in West Virginia’s 1st congressional district as an Independent. I am looking for supporters and volunteers to help get me on the ballot and financial support. My website is : http://raymondvdavisiiiforuscongress.webs.com/ Come and join me and help to change America. My twitter is @RDavis2012 and my campaign’s e-mail is davisra36@yahoo.com

  6. US Patriot.
    January 15, 2012 at 3:35 pm

    They have totally missed the fact that LUGAR will not be on the ballot. Mourdock has his number.

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