Home > General > Is Romney Electable? What the Polls Say about Obama vs Romney (2012) and McCain (2008)

Is Romney Electable? What the Polls Say about Obama vs Romney (2012) and McCain (2008)


Obama’s poll domination of McCain began in February, 2008 (McCain became frontrunner, Obama in battle with Hillary)

In 360 national head to head Polls from Feb-November 2008:

+ Obama led McCain in the final 94 polls leading to the Presidential Election

+ McCain led or tied in a sad 26 of the 360 polls taken, or just about 7% of polls, in 8 months of the campaign, Obama led in over 92%

+ Almost half of McCain’s brief poll leads were 1-2%

+ Obama’s average lead in polls in this time was about 8%, hitting double digits about 35% of the time

+ 7 of McCain’s 26 leads followed the Palin VP pick and Convention


2011 – Mitt vs Obama

There have been 52 Polls taken since September, 2011 between Obama and Romney

+ Romney has led or tied in 21 of the 52 Polls (15 leads, 6 ties), or about 40%. This 21 number is despite not being the nominee, and only 5 fewer than McCain had in almost 360 polls, and is equal if you remove the Palin “bump”

+ Most of Obama’s leads have been less than 3

So, why is Romney electable?

+ For starters, he’s the only one competitive in polling data

+ He is well known, not very well liked, yet still matches up well against Obama. People think he would make a good President.

+ In this stage of a campaign, polls heavily bias incumbents (incumbents are not in a nasty primary battle and large majorities of incumbent party voters express an opinion in a race. Whereas primaried challenger are more likely to say “unsure” when their desired candidate is not the one being polled against the incumbent)

Obama vs Newt

In case you were wondering, there have been 61 polls putting Newt vs Obama. Obama led in 58 of them, with over 70% being by 10+. Newt led in 2 (one by 1%, one by 2%) and one tie.

“Romney couldn’t beat McCain who couldn’t beat Obama”

+ No one would have beaten Obama in 2008: The media refused to cover him. The nation was suffering from Bush fatigue. He spent, like, $1 billion. The media wanted to see a black President and were willing to do anything about it.

+ No one knew who Romney was. Yes, this is why he didn’t win the nomination. It actually would have been a shock if Romney were to win the nomination. Also, this is like saying Reagan couldn’t beat Carter because Carter beat Ford… who beat Reagan in a primary.


Categories: General
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  1. January 5, 2012 at 8:03 am

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